$135 per share, 5.556 billion shares, $1.77 trillion. SpaceX has pinned the IPO price here. According to SpaceX’s S-1/A filed with the SEC on June 3 and the FWP roadshow materials filed on June 4, the company plans to issue 5.556 billion shares of Class A common stock at a price of $135 per share, with the stock set to list on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the symbol SPCX. After deducting underwriting discounts and offering expenses, the company expects to raise approximately $744 billion in net proceeds, or approximately $857 billion if the underwriters fully exercise their additional stock purchase option.

What the roadshow really posed to the market was not “how much is a rocket company worth.” SpaceX repeatedly emphasized in the materials that another issue is at play, where space transportation, satellite connectivity, and AI computing power are being bundled into the same balance sheet.

According to the same FWP roadshow materials, SpaceX describes itself as the only company simultaneously building a three-tier space, connectivity, and AI software and hardware infrastructure. The space business is tasked with reducing the cost of getting to orbit, Starlink is responsible for extending connectivity beyond ground, maritime, aerial, and mobile networks, and the AI business intertwines xAI, Grok, X, and Colossus computing clusters into the same narrative.

The numbers it presents are monumental. According to the roadshow materials, since 2023, SpaceX has accounted for over 80% of global orbital launch mass, with approximately 650 launches to date, operating over 9,600 Starlink satellites, with about 10.3 million Starlink users covering 164 countries and regions. Grok and X have around 550 million monthly active users, X sees about 3.5 billion daily posts, and the nominal power consumption of the AI computing infrastructure exceeds 1GW.

This is where Wall Street’s biggest divide lies now. SpaceX claims it is selling infrastructure. Skeptics say it is packaging infrastructure, AI, and Musk’s personal premium together for sale.

Starting with the hardest piece in the roadshow. Connectivity is now the part most resembling a “public company business.” According to the roadshow materials, Connectivity is projected to have revenues of $11.4 billion in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of $7.2 billion, surpassing the $7.6 billion in revenue and $3.8 billion in adjusted EBITDA projected for 2024. Space Division is forecasted to have revenues of $4.1 billion in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of $0.7 billion. The AI Division is expected to have revenues of $3.2 billion in 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.2 billion.

Combining these three bills paints a very unbalanced picture of SpaceX. Starlink is making money, the rockets are providing deployment capability, AI is burning cash, and contributing to valuation elasticity.

According to the roadshow materials, SpaceX’s total revenue in 2025 is $18.7 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $6.6 billion, but a GAAP net loss of $4.9 billion. Capital expenditures increase from $4.4 billion in 2023 to $11.2 billion in 2024, and further to $20.7 billion in 2025. By the first quarter of 2026, the company still records a $4.3 billion GAAP net loss. In stock market terms, this is not a mature profit stock. This is a stock that is selling future infrastructure control to the public market early.

The first Wall Street group reaction was to acknowledge that the story has changed. Fund manager Mike Alves wrote that investors should not just look at the $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion top-line valuation; the real question is whether SpaceX is building the next-generation economic infrastructure layer. Shaun Davies, Associate Professor of Finance at the University of Colorado Boulder, also describes SpaceX as a blend of aerospace, communication infrastructure, defense technology, and AI. Scott Pace, Director of the George Washington University Space Policy Institute, tends closer to the roadshow’s pitch, believing that growth is driven by the combination of communication, data, and AI in new ways through space.

This is the core logic of a multi-headed approach. Don’t try to fit SpaceX into the mold of Boeing, AT&T, or traditional aerospace companies. What it sells is a set of irreplicable infrastructure entrances.

Reuters mentioned that at least one large institutional SpaceX investor privately did not benchmark SpaceX against Boeing or AT&T but instead looked at companies like Palantir, GE Vernova, Vertiv that have been revalued due to AI infrastructure. In the same report, PitchBook analyst Franco Granda bluntly stated that investors are paying today for platform premium and betting on tomorrow’s infrastructure monopoly economics.

However, this algorithm also has its own awkwardness. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX is equivalent to about 110 times the estimated 2025 revenue, even more expensive than Palantir on some metrics. According to S&P Capital IQ data, based on a market value of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion and the past 12 months’ revenue as of March 31, 2026, SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio is approximately 90 to 103 times, exceeding all seven tech giants and notably higher than Tesla’s approximately 16 times price-to-sales ratio at that time.

The reason why the longs can accept this price is because they don’t see SpaceX as just a rocket company. The shorts, on the other hand, cannot accept this price for the same reason – SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company. Valuation discrepancies start to become clear from this point.

The first valuation target is $780 billion. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens’ initial coverage of SpaceX placed a fair value estimation of $780 billion, which is less than half of the IPO target valuation. Owens’ concerns are centered around the AI business. He believes that Grok is not currently a leading AI lab, technologies like the orbital data center are yet to be validated, and investors may have a safer entry point post-IPO.

The second target range is between $1.22 trillion and $1.29 trillion. New York University Stern School of Business Professor Aswath Damodaran’s valuation model, based on limited financial data at the time, provided a baseline valuation of $1.22 trillion, with a median of $1.29 trillion after 10,000 simulations. He acknowledges SpaceX’s engineering marvel and significant competitive advantage. However, his bottom line is clear – pricing it at $1.75 trillion or even $2 trillion would leave little upside for buyers.

The third target is $1.25 trillion. Scottish Mortgage, managed by Baillie Gifford, holds SpaceX at a $1.25 trillion valuation as of March 31, 2026, emphasizing that the valuation is based on verifiable transactions, not media rumors. This figure is intriguing. Scottish Mortgage is a long-term holder. It’s neither bearish on SpaceX, nor does it directly align with the $1.75 trillion mark.

Only above these targets is SpaceX’s own stated $1.77 trillion for the public market. These four figures together represent the current reality of SpaceX on Wall Street. It’s not a simple buy or sell call. It’s more like a price band, where $780 billion is the conservative anchor given by the fundamentalists, $1.22 trillion to $1.29 trillion is Damodaran’s narrative and cash flow compromise, $1.25 trillion is the position mark of institutional investors, and $1.77 trillion is the price that SpaceX is prepared to hand over to the public market.

The trading sentiment on social platforms is more direct. The focus of trading accounts like X on Ticker Wire, Surmount, VirtualBacon, among others, is not discounted cash flows but the $750 billion fundraising, $1.75 trillion valuation, potential index buying, and the trading rhythm of SpaceX followed by OpenAI and Anthropic possibly taking the baton for an IPO. They view SpaceX as a liquidity event, not a company that needs to be meticulously dissected in Excel.

This is also the warning given by Scott Sacknoff. SPADE Defense Index manager Scott Sacknoff believes that the SpaceX IPO has elevated mainstream investor enthusiasm to near-irrational exuberance levels, with publicly traded space company stock prices rising 60% to 100% year-to-date. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, those truly likely to make money look more like traders than buy-and-hold investors.

Traders are watching the supply and demand, while long-term investors are looking at the valuation realization path. This path has three checkpoints. The first checkpoint is Starlink. It must continue to convert user growth, ARPU, mobile connections, and enterprise and government customers into cash flow. SpaceX’s roadshow places Connectivity in a $1.6 trillion potential market, with Starlink Broadband accounting for $870 billion and Starlink Mobile for $740 billion. This market is not small, but the public market will first focus on revenue quality, not TAM.

The second checkpoint is AI. SpaceX’s roadshow includes the long-term AI opportunity in a $26.5 trillion market and outlines a roadmap to start deploying AI compute satellites in 2028. Reuters Breakingviews on April 24 referred to this market pitch as “interstellar bunk,” for a simple reason – the $28.5 trillion total potential market already exceeds one-fifth of global GDP. This is not to say that AI has no value, but SpaceX has staked its valuation elasticity on the most challenging area to validate.

The third checkpoint is governance discount. According to SpaceX’s S-1/A, based on the post-offering equity structure, Musk will control approximately 82.4% of the common stock voting rights. Class B common stock has 10 votes per share, and Class A has 1 vote per share. On May 13, the New York City Comptroller, the New York State Comptroller, and CalPERS CEO sent an open letter to SpaceX, representing asset management totaling over $1 trillion, requesting that SpaceX adopt a one-share-one-vote structure or set a sunset provision of no more than 7 years for super-voting rights.

Kiplinger’s Mike Alves provided a multi-faceted explanation of this matter. He believes that in a regular company, this level of control might be a deal-breaker, but the market for SpaceX may see “getting exposure” as more important than governance. The implication here is that investors are buying not governance rights but rather an option for Musk to stay at the helm.

This roadshow has transformed SpaceX from a rocket company into an infrastructure conglomerate. What Wall Street now needs to determine is how much of this conglomerate is actual cash flow, how much is a future tech roadmap, and how much is the Musk premium. If we only consider the roadshow, SpaceX has already told the story very comprehensively. The rockets are reducing costs, Starlink is connecting users, AI is integrating computing power, and orbital calculations are raising the ceiling.

Looking at Wall Street’s reaction, another story is also complete. Morningstar is waiting for a lower price, Damodaran is waiting for a major pullback, Scottish Mortgage has not anchored its position to the IPO target price, PitchBook and some institutions are willing to justify the platform premium, trading accounts are watching for potential index buying and short-term liquidity, and pension funds are focusing on control. There is no controversy over SpaceX’s rockets. The controversy lies in how much investors are willing to pay for the entire sky behind those rockets.

[BlockBeats]