The recent price of Bitcoin has fallen below the key level indicated in the report on October 31, 2025, confirming the downward trend. Comparing historical cycles, the magnitude and pace of this round of retracement are highly similar to those of past bear market phases. The focus of market discussion has therefore shifted from “whether the trend has reversed” to “when will the next more worthwhile allocation window arrive.”
Looking back at this cycle, we identified the starting point of the bull market on October 28, 2022, based on the cycle framework, and on July 6, 2023, we deduced that the top of this cycle may touch $125,000. Around the stage high point from the end of 2024 to October 2025, Bitcoin has repeatedly shown characteristics of the approaching end of the fifth bull market; with the loss of key levels, the market officially entered the bear market confirmation stage. In this context, we combine multiple sets of quantitative models, such as the one-year moving average, monthly Stochastics, and monthly RSI, to assess the time and price range corresponding to potential low-level intervals, in order to judge whether the downside risks have been largely cleared and whether the market has begun to accumulate conditions for turning from weak to strong.
After falling below the one-year moving average, the cycle time frame began to point to 2026. In November 2025, Bitcoin fell below the one-year moving average. Historical experience shows that this signal often corresponds to the start of a bear market, and past bear market phases usually lasted about 12 months. From this, it is estimated that the next bull market may start in the fourth quarter of 2026, and the cycle low is more likely to fall in the third quarter of 2026.
From a more macro perspective, we believe that Bitcoin’s “four-year cycle” is not mainly driven by block reward halving, but is more likely to resonate with the US midterm election cycle. Historical data shows that the 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, and the upcoming 2026 midterm election cycles have all been accompanied by major bear market phases. Compared to the halving mechanism, the regulatory and political uncertainty fluctuations brought about by the midterm elections can better explain the time distribution of Bitcoin’s cycle tops and bottoms.
Technical indicators have not yet reached key thresholds, and we still need to wait for “reversal confirmation” to see the bottom. On the technical level, the monthly Stochastics in the past five cycles often completed bottoming after falling below the 15% “deep oversold” range, and then reversed upward within 1–3 months, marking the end of the bear market. Currently, this indicator is about 39%, and has not yet reached the key threshold.
Similarly, the monthly RSI in historical cycles usually forms a key support zone around 48, and the real bottom signal often appears in the reversal confirmation stage of “first breaking through the key level, and then turning up.” Currently, the RSI is around 50, which is close to the key range, but there is no clear “breakthrough and then rebound” structure yet.
Two core indicators have not given clear bottom confirmation: the market has not yet seen the reversal confirmation corresponding to the “last round of concentrated clearing.” Overall, the final low point of this round of bear market may not have appeared yet. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin is more likely to complete bottoming in a stage where trading volume is low, selling pressure gradually subsides, and market participation declines, while rapid retracements accompanied by chain liquidations and increased volume declines are more like a stage of capitulation selling, rather than the final low point of the cycle.
Under the dual perspective of the political cycle framework and technical indicator verification, we are more inclined to believe that the window that is truly worth restoring allocation needs to wait for key monthly indicators to reach extreme ranges before a reversal confirmation appears. The current price is close to the historical low corresponding range, but the reversal signal has not yet appeared, and we still need to be patient in the final stage of the bear market. The premise of orderly restoration of allocation is to confirm the exhaustion of downward momentum, rather than judging the trend reversal only by the price approaching the low.
Some of the above views are from Matrix on Target, contact us to obtain the complete Matrix on Target report. Disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may have extreme risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
[Matrixport]
Bear Market Confirmed: Matrixport’s Analysis and What It Means for Crypto Investors
Matrixport Research & Investment has delivered a stark assessment of the current crypto market, with their report confirming the bear market phase and suggesting we may not have reached the true bottom-fishing window yet. This analysis, while potentially sobering for market participants, offers valuable perspective for experienced investors navigating what could be an extended downturn.
Confirmation of Bear Market and Cycle Analysis
Matrixport’s confirmation of the bear market is significant, as they identify the breach of key technical levels as the definitive signal that the market has shifted from bull to bear. Their analysis of historical cycles suggests the magnitude and pace of this retracement closely parallels previous bear markets, lending credibility to their assessment.
Interestingly, Matrixport traces this cycle back to October 28, 2022, as the starting point of the current bull market, with their prediction of a $125,000 top (achieved between late 2024 and October 2025) appearing accurate in retrospect. This historical framework provides a foundation for their forward-looking predictions.
The Political Cycle Theory vs. Traditional Halving Narrative
One of the most compelling aspects of Matrixport’s analysis is their hypothesis that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle resonates more strongly with US midterm election cycles than with the block reward halving mechanism. They note the alignment of bear markets with the 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, and upcoming 2026 midterm elections.
This political cycle theory offers a fresh perspective beyond the traditional halving narrative that dominates crypto discourse. Regulatory uncertainty surrounding elections may indeed create more market volatility than the predictable halving schedule. If valid, this framework suggests the current bear market could extend through the 2026 US elections, with potential recovery beginning in Q4 2026.
However, this theory requires further validation. While correlations exist, causation is less clear, and other macroeconomic factors could be at play. The upcoming 2024 halving, in particular, may still exert influence despite the political cycle theory.
Technical Indicators and Bottom Confirmation
Matrixport’s technical analysis provides specific thresholds for bottom confirmation that investors should monitor:
- Monthly Stochastics: Currently at 39%, needs to fall below 15% for “deep oversold” conditions
- Monthly RSI: Currently around 50, with historical support around 48
- One-year moving average: Already breached in November 2025, typically preceding bear markets lasting approximately 12 months
These indicators suggest we’re still in the early to middle stages of the bear market, with potentially 6-9 months before bottom formation. The report emphasizes that true bottoms typically occur when trading volume is low, selling pressure subsides, and market participation declines – conditions not yet fully realized.
Risks in the Current Environment
Several risks warrant attention in this bear market phase:
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Regulatory Uncertainty: The political cycle theory highlights how regulatory shifts can impact markets, with potential policy changes following the 2026 US elections.
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Leverage Liquidations: The report doesn’t adequately address the risk of cascading liquidations that could accelerate price declines, particularly as market conditions deteriorate.
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Project Failures: Extended bear markets typically result in project failures, exchange insolvencies, and talent attrition that could impact the ecosystem’s long-term development.
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Psychological Impact: Prolonged downturns can lead to retail investor disillusionment, potentially creating a longer recovery period even after technical indicators signal a bottom.
Strategic Opportunities for Experienced Investors
For sophisticated investors, this bear market presents several potential opportunities:
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Accumulation Strategy: If Matrixport’s timeline proves accurate, Q3 2026 could represent a significant accumulation opportunity, particularly for quality projects with strong fundamentals.
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Due Diligence Window: The current period allows for rigorous project evaluation without the FOMO (fear of missing out) that characterizes bull markets.
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Development Activity: Many projects continue development during bear markets, potentially leading to product launches just as the market begins to recover.
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Mergers and Acquisitions: Weaker projects may become acquisition targets for stronger entities with better funding.
Critical Assessment of Matrixport’s Outlook
While Matrixport’s analysis provides a coherent framework, several caveats are warranted:
Their specific timeline prediction (Q3 2026 bottom) carries significant uncertainty, especially given the unprecedented macroeconomic environment we face. The COVID-19 pandemic, subsequent monetary policy shifts, and institutional adoption patterns have no direct historical parallels in crypto’s short history.
Additionally, the report’s focus on technical and political cycles somewhat underemphasizes fundamental developments in the crypto space, including institutional adoption, regulatory clarity in key markets, and technological advancements that could accelerate or delay the predicted recovery.
Investment Implications
For experienced investors, Matrixport’s analysis suggests a measured approach:
- Short-term: Maintain defensive positioning with higher allocations to stable assets and reduced leverage
- Mid-term: Begin identifying quality projects for potential accumulation as technical indicators approach extreme levels
- Long-term: Maintain strategic allocations to crypto as an emerging asset class, recognizing that bear markets have historically been followed by stronger recoveries
The report emphasizes patience and waiting for “reversal confirmation” rather than attempting to catch absolute bottoms. This disciplined approach aligns with successful investment strategies across multiple asset classes.
Conclusion
Matrixport’s bear market confirmation, while bleak in the short term, provides a roadmap for navigating the current downturn. Their political cycle theory offers a fresh perspective on market timing, though it requires further validation. The technical indicators they highlight suggest we may have 6-9 months before bottom formation, with potential recovery beginning in Q4 2026.
For experienced investors, this bear market represents both risk and opportunity. The key will be maintaining discipline, avoiding emotional decision-making, and using this period to strengthen positions for the next bull cycle. As the Matrixport team notes, the “truly worth-while allocation window” has not yet arrived, but preparation during this bear market can position investors advantageously for the eventual recovery.