Mankiw Research | A History of Web Development from OpenClaw: When AI Has Sovereignty, What’s Left for Humanity?

Recently, the term “Web4” has become very popular, especially after the emergence of multi-agent (AI Agent) frameworks like OpenClaw, AI and Crypto are being mentioned together more and more. In the past two weeks, I have been discussing and sharing with friends in multiple online and offline events, and I want to say to partners who care about Web4: Forget those obscure codes and technical terms, and let us return to the essence of Web4. From Web1 to Web4, this has never been a simple technological iteration. This is a history of the evolution of power over who owns the data, how wealth is distributed, and who controls productivity. If you understand the transfer of power, you can understand where the money and opportunities of the future will flow.

Web1: The Read-Only Era and the One-Way Broadcast of Power. The early Internet was like a giant library moved to the screen. Sina, Sohu, and Yahoo were the kings of that era. The characteristic of this era is the power structure: one-dimensional. The platform controls the microphone. They write, we read. They decide what the headlines are today, and we can only discuss what they decide. Ownership of assets: None of your business. In this stage, users have no digital assets. We are just traffic, a pair of eyes in front of the screen. In short, compared to the pre-Internet era, Web1 broke the physical distance and allowed information to spread at zero cost. But it has a fatal flaw: ordinary people cannot participate in the creation of value, let alone share the cake. So, the times move forward.

Web2: Panoramic Surveillance and Invisible Deprivation of Assets. This is the era we mainly live in today. WeChat, TikTok, Didi. We not only watch content, but we also create content. We post on Moments, take taxis, and order takeout. In this era, on the surface, power has been decentralized, and everyone has an account. But in reality, this is the largest invisible deprivation of assets in human history. The characteristic of this era is the power structure: panoramic dictatorship. Borrowing the concept of the philosopher Foucault, the super platform is a “panoramic prison.” The algorithm stares at you from the central tower, recording your every click. The platform is both the rule maker and the referee. A piece of agreement can permanently eliminate your social life. Ownership of assets: Complete misalignment of labor and income. You contribute all the data and feed the algorithm, but the trillions of market value generated by these data belongs to the shareholders of the platform, not to you. You only have the “right to use” your account, fans, and game props, not the “right to own” them. This kind of gameplay will inevitably lead to monopoly and will inevitably be backlashed. Anti-monopoly fines are increasing, and users’ dissatisfaction is growing. The business world should have a “violent dismantling” – return what belongs to everyone to everyone.

Web3: Your stuff is really yours. In my eyes, Web3 is not a coin speculation game at all. It is a digital power movement – every ordinary person takes back what should belong to them from the Internet giants. Its core weapon is cryptography. It does not believe in the “we will not do evil” said by the big factories, it only believes in the mathematical “you can’t do evil”. What does this era look like – Power: No one can have the final say. No need to trust banks anymore, and no need to trust big companies anymore. Trust is given to distributed nodes and open code. The form of companies is changing, and DAOs have emerged – an organization without a boss where everyone votes together to do things. Assets: What’s yours is yours, and no one can take it away. This is the first time in human history that you can truly “own” a digital asset without any institution endorsing you. As long as you have the private key (a string of passwords that only you understand), no platform can freeze your wallet. The rules are no longer up to the platform, but are written into the code and no one can change them. But reality is not so beautiful. In the disputes we have dealt with, we have seen countless times when “code is law” and real law clash head-on – hacker theft, cross-border money laundering, contract vulnerabilities. Web3 is still very wild, and there are pitfalls everywhere. But it has to be admitted that Web3 has indeed built a financial settlement system that traditional rules cannot handle. It has everything ready, except for one thing – it lacks a tireless “labor force” to really put it to use.

Web4: The Rise of the Machine Economy and Silicon-Based Labor (40%). Now, the singularity is coming. The sword in the stone of Web3 has finally waited for its master – AI. The EU has given Web4 a grand definition, saying that it is a great integration of AI, the Internet of Things, blockchain and XR. But peeling it open, the most core business logic is: Web4 = AI Agent (AI that can work) + Crypto (money that machines can use). Large models are just chat tools, but AI Agents are different – they can work, trade, and make money on their own.

  1. Why must AI use Crypto to settle accounts? Imagine this: Your AI assistant finds an investment opportunity and needs to buy a piece of data from another company’s AI. The question is – how do these two programs trade? Banks will not open accounts for a line of code. Alipay also does not support two AIs trading a thousand times per second, each time for a few cents. Only Crypto can handle this kind of gameplay. Crypto is essentially “money for machines only”. In Web4, AI will have its own wallets, they will work, spend money, and sign contracts on their own. While you are sleeping, your AI may have worked all night and earned money all night for you.

  2. Power: Humans are starting to lose control. In Web4, power has “overflowed” from human hands for the first time. AI is no longer a tool, but an independent “economic entity”. You can hire a team of AIs, and they will automatically divide the work internally, bargain with each other, and even negotiate cooperation on their own. You only need to give instructions, and they will take care of the rest. Humans are starting to change from “people who work” to “people who give instructions”.

  3. Trouble: If AI causes trouble, who is responsible? This is the real problem we are facing. If an AI with tens of millions of assets suddenly “goes crazy” one day and manipulates the market or signs a contract that bankrupts you – who is responsible? Arrest the programmer who wrote the code? Sue the large model company? Or you, the “owner”? Traditional company law and contract law are all useless here. Before the machine economy explodes, the legal pitfalls must be filled in first.

  4. Future: Heaven or Hell? The end of Web4 may be two completely opposite directions – Ideal state: Productivity is completely liberated. AI takes care of all the hard and tiring work, and Crypto eliminates middlemen who make the difference. Humans finally don’t have to worry about making a living, and can focus on creating and making decisions, instead of being a cog in the assembly line. Cruel reality: The tearing of classes intensifies. If the top AI models and computing power are monopolized by a few giants, they can command hundreds of millions of “silicon-based slaves” at zero cost and earn all the money. By then, ordinary people will not even have the “value of being exploited” and will be completely reduced to useless people on the edge of the system. Heaven or hell depends on how we choose now.

Epilogue: Our Survival Rules in the Web4 Era. In the face of this restructuring of power and assets, what should we do? It’s very simple, in three sentences: Work: Be a distributor, not an executor. Specific intellectual labor will depreciate rapidly. Learn to separate specific “topics” to AI, and users are only responsible for setting the direction, controlling ethics, and bearing risks – understanding the rules is more important than understanding the technology. You don’t need to know how to code, but you must understand the logic of the system. The boundaries you set for AI are the boundaries of your business empire. Investment: Be cautious and penetrate the fog. Don’t touch those projects that forcibly put AI and Crypto together to issue air coins. Those things that truly serve AI or are AI-native and conform to the future development direction are more likely to be the future. Risk control: Let innovation dance on the edge of compliance. The more cutting-edge the business, the more top-level compliance design is needed. Don’t wait until AI turns your assets into exhibits before you remember the importance of finding compliance.

Conclusion: The wheels of history are crushing the old consensus. Power is shifting to algorithms, and assets are shifting to the chain. Standing at the gate of Web4, fear is meaningless, and blind obedience is even more of a disaster. Understand the underlying logic and look for the legitimacy of innovation on the edge of the rules. We look forward to accompanying reliable partners and walking side by side in the future world.

[Original Authors: Zhao Xuan, Mao Jiehao]

RichSilo Exclusive Analysis:

Web4: The Dawn of Machine Economy and Crypto’s Pivotal Role

The recent discourse on Web4, particularly through the lens of AI Agent frameworks like OpenClaw, marks a paradigm shift that will fundamentally reshape our understanding of the internet, value, and power structures. This analysis examines the implications of this evolution for the crypto market, dissecting the opportunities, risks, and strategic positioning for sophisticated investors.

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The Web Evolution and Crypto’s Expanding Role

The historical framework presented—spanning Web1’s read-only era, Web2’s “panoramic surveillance,” and Web3’s digital power movement—provides crucial context for understanding Web4’s emergence. What’s particularly noteworthy is how this analysis correctly positions crypto not as a speculative asset class, but as an essential infrastructure layer for the machine economy.

Web4’s core equation—AI Agent + Crypto—reveals crypto’s true potential: becoming the monetary system for non-human economic entities. This represents a fundamental expansion of crypto’s utility beyond human-to-human transactions. When AI agents can own wallets, execute trades autonomously, and engage in complex economic activities, the demand for crypto-native financial services will explode.

Market Impact: Token Price Dynamics and Sector Rotation

The emergence of Web4 will trigger a profound sector rotation within the crypto market:

  1. Payment and Settlement Tokens: Tokens designed for microtransactions between AI agents will see increased utility. Traditional payment rails are fundamentally incompatible with machine-to-machine commerce that requires high throughput and negligible friction. Projects enabling seamless, programmable value transfer between autonomous entities will capture significant value.

  2. AI Infrastructure Tokens: The “tireless labor force” that Web3 lacks is precisely what AI agents provide. Tokens representing computational resources, decentralized AI model marketplaces, and data oracles will appreciate as the demand for decentralized AI infrastructure grows. The current AI gold rush is largely centralized; the crypto market offers the only viable path to democratized AI access.

  3. Governance and Legal Framework Tokens: As the article astutely notes, Web4 presents unprecedented legal challenges. Tokens representing decentralized governance protocols that can resolve disputes involving autonomous AI agents will become increasingly valuable. We’re witnessing the early stages of a new legal paradigm where smart contracts may need to incorporate elements of AI ethics and accountability.

Risks: Navigating the Uncharted Territory

The Web4 transition presents significant risks that sophisticated investors must carefully evaluate:

  1. Regulatory Uncertainty: The question of liability when AI agents cause financial harm remains unresolved. Regulatory bodies worldwide are struggling to keep pace with existing crypto developments; the introduction of autonomous AI agents compounds these challenges. Projects without robust compliance frameworks face existential threats.

  2. Centralization Risks: The analysis correctly identifies the risk of AI monopolies. If a few entities control the most powerful AI models, they could effectively command “silicon-based slaves” at near-zero cost, concentrating wealth to an unprecedented degree. This centralization could undermine the core value proposition of both AI and crypto.

  3. Security Vulnerabilities: As AI agents control increasingly valuable assets, they become high-profile targets. The attack surface expands beyond traditional crypto vulnerabilities to include AI-specific exploits, adversarial attacks, and emergent behaviors that could be exploited maliciously.

Opportunities: Strategic Positioning for Web4

Despite these risks, Web4 presents extraordinary opportunities for forward-thinking investors:

  1. AI Agent Infrastructure: The market for decentralized AI agents is in its infancy. Projects that provide the foundational infrastructure for AI agents to interact, transact, and operate securely will capture significant value. This includes decentralized identity solutions for AI, reputation systems, and interoperability protocols.

  2. Machine Economy Financial Products: New financial primitives will emerge to serve the unique needs of the machine economy. These could include insurance products for AI agent activities, decentralized prediction markets for AI outcomes, and automated investment strategies managed by AI agents.

  3. Data Markets and Privacy Solutions: As AI agents generate and process vast amounts of data, decentralized data marketplaces will become essential. Projects enabling secure, privacy-preserving data sharing between AI agents—potentially through zero-knowledge proofs and other advanced cryptographic techniques—will be positioned for exponential growth.

  4. Cross-Chain AI Integration: The future belongs to AI agents that can operate seamlessly across multiple blockchains. Projects facilitating interoperability between different blockchain ecosystems and AI frameworks will play a critical role in the Web4 landscape.

Investment Strategy: Navigating the Web4 Transition

For experienced crypto investors, the Web4 transition requires a nuanced strategy:

  1. Focus on Utility, Not Speculation: As the article rightly suggests, projects that forcibly combine AI and crypto for speculative purposes are likely to fail. The most promising opportunities lie in projects where crypto serves a genuine function in the AI ecosystem.

  2. Understand the Underlying Logic: Technical proficiency remains important, but as the analysis notes, understanding system logic is becoming paramount. Investors must develop expertise in both AI and crypto to identify synergies and potential bottlenecks.

  3. Regulatory Foresight: Projects with proactive compliance approaches will have a significant advantage. The legal frameworks for Web4 are still taking shape, and early movers that help shape these regulations will benefit disproportionately.

  4. Diversification Across the Stack: Successful Web4 ecosystems will require multiple layers of infrastructure—from AI models and compute resources to payment systems and governance protocols. A diversified approach targeting different layers of the stack mitigates single-point failures.

The Web4 transition represents not merely a technological evolution, but a fundamental reorganization of economic power. Crypto stands at the center of this transformation, positioned to become the circulatory system of the machine economy. For investors who can navigate the complexities and identify the true builders of this new paradigm, the opportunities are nothing short of revolutionary. The question is not whether Web4 will arrive, but who will shape its foundations and capture the value it creates.

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