Geopolitical Tensions Reshape Markets (2026-05-25)

US stocks and Hong Kong stocks will be closed on Monday, and gold, silver, and oil trading will end early.

U.S. stock markets will be closed for one day on Monday, May 25, due to the Memorial Day holiday; precious metals and U.S. crude oil futures contracts traded on the CME Group will end trading early at 02:30 AM Beijing Time on May 26, while U.S. equity and Treasury futures contracts will end trading early at 01:00 AM Beijing Time on May 26.

Due to the Buddha’s Birthday holiday, Hong Kong’s stock market will be closed for one day on May 25, with southbound and northbound trading suspended; South Korea’s stock market will also be closed for one day on the same date. Additionally, due to the UK Spring Bank Holiday, the UK stock market will be closed for one day on May 25; Brent crude oil futures contracts traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will end trading early at 01:30 AM Beijing Time on May 26. Investors are advised to take note.

[Odaily]

Two wallets that have been dormant for over a year deposited a total of 1,650 BTC to FalconX, worth approximately $127.00 million.

On May 25, according to Lookonchain monitoring, after being dormant for over a year, two wallets deposited 1,650 BTC (worth $127 million) into FalconX 6 hours ago.

[PANews]

Toncoin Bridge Shutdown Confirmed: Users Face Deadline to Recover Funds

The Open Network (TON) has confirmed that its legacy Token Bridge will permanently close on September 1, 2026, giving users a final window to recover any bridged assets before access is cut off entirely. The TON Foundation announced the shutdown of bridge-v3.ton.org and has waived all percentage-based transfer fees for the remaining withdrawal period to ease the transition.

Users holding Wrapped Toncoin (TON) on Ethereum or BNB Chain must bridge their tokens back to the TON network using bridge-v3.ton.org before the deadline. Those holding j-tokens, including jUSDT, jUSDC, jDAI, and jWBTC, in their TON wallets must return them to Ethereum through the same bridge. Any assets left in bridged form after September 1 will become inaccessible. The TON Foundation confirmed that all previously submitted user transfers have been processed, and the protocol covered fees for unclaimed transfers.

Bridge oracles will withdraw their staked TON in June 2026, marking the first visible phase of the shutdown. The oracles will actively continue processing transfers until the final date, giving users roughly three months to act. This development follows a broader period of ecosystem growth, where Telegram’s TON takeover reshaped governance and drove a sustained rally, while Pavel Durov’s TON revival attracted both retail and institutional attention to the network. A recent Telegram CEO TON upgrade further underscored the protocol’s continued development.

The retirement of the legacy bridge reflects the maturity of TON’s native DeFi infrastructure. Users can monitor TON market activity as the network transitions to newer cross-chain solutions. Users should check their wallets immediately and initiate withdrawals well before the September deadline to account for any network delays. Overall, this transition highlights the importance of timely user action and careful attention to evolving network infrastructure and updates regularly.

Bond strategists warn: Yields will remain high even if the war in Iran ends

On May 24, according to JINSHI News, although concerns about inflation triggered by war persist, there are already signs that other factors are equally influencing long-term borrowing costs. In the U.S., so-called “real yields”—yields adjusted for inflation—carry greater weight, suggesting bond investors are worried about more than just price pressures stemming from the Iran conflict.

Other drivers include: the already massive public debt burden potentially expanding further; the impact of the AI investment boom; and an increasing likelihood that central banks—including the Federal Reserve—will hike rates rather than cut them.

Strategists from ING, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays all emphasize a widespread expectation: recent rises in some long-term yields will not be fully reversed—even if inflation recedes due to falling oil prices. This implies that even after the conflict ends, market borrowing costs may remain near multi-year highs, continuing to pressure governments and the broader economy.

[PANews]

No signs of easing in the US military’s blockade of Iranian ports

Recordings from public radio channels for ships near the Strait of Hormuz show that the U.S. military continued to fire warning shots at ships entering and leaving Iranian ports on the 24th, and there was no sign of easing in the maritime blockade. Recordings provided by crew members on ships stranded near the strait show that the U.S. military fired warning shots at a ship that day, forcing it to remain in waters near Iran’s Chabahar port.

Winward, a UK-based maritime analysis company, said on the 24th that despite reports of a possible agreement between the U.S. and Iran, there has been no significant change in the transit situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Satellite images obtained by the company show that large oil tankers are still anchored near Iranian islands such as Larak Island in the northern Strait of Hormuz or in key locations in the waterway, with only a small number of ships entering and leaving the strait, mainly small cargo ships.

[Odaily]

Blockchain encrypted links become the default payment layer for AI Agents, with stablecoins dominating machine transactions.

PANews reported on May 24 that, according to a recent report by industry institution Keyrock, traditional payment channels are not well-suited for small, high-frequency machine payment scenarios. Blockchain encryption links are gradually becoming the default payment carrier for AI Agents.

Statistics show that AI Agent-related on-chain transactions reached 176.00 million in the past year, with a settlement scale of over $73.00 million. Currently, machine payment settlements are highly concentrated, with 98.6% of transactions completed using the USDC stablecoin, which not only consolidates the issuer’s industry position but also creates potential risks of reliance on a single currency.

Google, Visa, Coinbase, and other technology and payment giants are deploying exclusive machine payment architectures to compete in the market.

[Coindesk]

Michael Saylor: This week, we bought bonds, not Bitcoin.

Michael Saylor posted: “This week, we bought bonds, not Bitcoin. ₿itVac is charging.”

[ChainCatcher]

“1011 Insider Whale” agent increases HYPE holdings to 144,183, worth $9.03 million.

On May 24, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, the “1011 insider whale” agent Garrett Jin has increased his HYPE holdings to 144,183 tokens, valued at $9.03 million.

He currently still holds 5x leveraged Bitcoin long positions and 3x leveraged ZEC short positions, with a floating loss of over $1.8 million.

[PANews]

U.S. officials: The Iran deal will not be signed today; they reject imposing any transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Fox News, citing US government officials, a deal with Iran will not be signed today, but we are making progress towards that goal, and we reject any transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, an option that is unacceptable to us.

We have observed Iran making serious and unprecedented concessions on the issue of enriched uranium, and if Iran is still enriching uranium in the final agreement, it will not be considered a final agreement.

[Odaily]

Vitalik: The Ethereum Foundation will “scale back” and reduce ETH sales.

May 25th news, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin published a long article on the X platform, responding to the recent turmoil and researcher departure trend at the Ethereum Foundation.

Buterin stated that the foundation is choosing “long-term survival rather than being large and comprehensive,” reducing ETH sales and focusing on Ethereum’s CROPS attributes such as censorship resistance, open source, privacy, and security. He emphasized that the post only represents his personal views and that his power within the organization will continue to decrease, which is in line with his wishes. Buterin believes that the EF should be understood as “a node with a clear purpose, alongside other nodes,” rather than the center of Ethereum.

Buterin pointed out that the foundation holds approximately 0.16% of ETH, while other blockchain foundations typically hold 10% to 50% of their own token supply.

[PANews]

Analysis: Optimistic expectations for US-Iran agreement drive oil prices down 5.00%, risk currencies strengthen

May 25th news, according to Jinshi reports, as market optimism rises regarding an imminent agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane and resume crude oil transport, risk appetite has rebounded, causing both oil prices and the dollar to fall, while U.S. stock index futures have risen.

WTI crude oil fell more than 5.00% in early trading, while currencies sensitive to risk sentiment, such as the Australian dollar and the South African rand, led gains against the U.S. dollar. S&P 500 index futures also rose, after the benchmark index closed near its all-time high on Friday.

U.S. senior officials said on Sunday that the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the two sides are still negotiating key wording, and final approval may still take several days. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency warned that the draft agreement could fall apart because the U.S. is creating obstacles on some key terms, including Iran’s demand to unfreeze its assets.

[PANews]

CZ: The rumor of being out of contact while surfing in Dubai is fake news. Dubai is not a surfing destination.

CZ posted on the X platform, cautioning against fake news, stating that he does not LFG, kitesurfing is another sport, and Dubai is not a surfing destination; Surf Abu Dhabi is the world’s largest artificial surfing venue, which he has not yet tried, and there are no rapids there.

Previously, there were market rumors that Binance founder CZ encountered a rip current and went missing while surfing on a beach in Dubai, and the search and rescue is still ongoing.

[Odaily]

StablR: Actively taking measures to contain the vulnerability and minimize its impact as much as possible

This morning, the stablecoin project StablR, which was attacked, tweeted, “We have discovered a vulnerability in StablR and are actively taking steps to contain it and minimize its impact as much as possible.

Protecting our users and their funds is our top priority. We will share verified details and follow-up plans as soon as possible.”

[Foresight News]

Trump: I have notified representatives not to rush into an agreement. Time is on our side.

On May 24, according to JIN10, U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and he has instructed his representatives not to rush into reaching an agreement, as time is on their side.

Trump emphasized that the (maritime) blockade will remain fully effective until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed. He noted that both sides must proceed slowly and cannot afford any mistakes.

[PANews]

Buy, Hodl, Repeat: Adam Back Delivers a Clear Bitcoin Recommendation

Blockstream CEO Adam Back says efficient markets are finally repricing memecoins, smart contract tokens, and other “air tokens,” and argues that most of these assets never had any genuine foundation for their valuations. Back is the inventor of Hashcash and one of Bitcoin’s most outspoken maximalists. He has held this view for years. His surprise, he noted, is not that a correction arrived but that it took this long.

Back made his case in posts on X on May 23 and 24, 2026. His argument rests on three absences: the tokens he targets produce no cash flows for holders, attract no meaningful blockspace demand, and hold no sustainable competitive advantages over alternatives. Without any of these, he contends, there is no rational basis for a price above zero.

In Back’s framing, the process is already underway. He has been making this call since at least the previous market cycle, and the current repricing is a correction toward what he always viewed as the inevitable outcome.

The surrounding market context underlines his point. Bitcoin (BTC) had dropped to a four-week price low after the Clarity Act vote was delayed. The asset then rebounded sharply after the US-Iran war end triggered a broad rally. As this week’s crypto overview shows, altcoins failed to sustain any meaningful gains from the same catalyst; Bitcoin absorbed the macro tailwind, while most alternatives did not.

Back’s diagnosis leads directly to a single prescription. If most tokens trade above their fundamental value, Bitcoin stands apart as the asset he views as genuinely scarce and decentralized. His instruction has not changed: buy Bitcoin, hold it, and repeat.

The argument connects to a broader pattern in how Back engages with Bitcoin critics. Earlier this week, he pushed back against Cuban’s Bitcoin performance claims after the billionaire sold most of his holdings. Back defends Bitcoin with data and has done so across multiple market cycles. Whether the altcoin repricing he describes continues toward zero or finds a floor somewhere above it remains open, but his position on where the value lies has not moved.

White House: Iranian peace agreement may take several days to reach

On May 24, according to JINSHI citing the AXIOS website, a senior U.S. official stated at a briefing that the White House does not expect to conclude a war-avoidance agreement with Iran by Sunday, believing the deal may take several days to gain approval from Iran’s leadership—including its Supreme Leader.

U.S. officials expressed optimism that the agreement would be signed within days but acknowledged it has not yet been finalized and remains subject to collapse. The agreement would avert escalation of war and ease global oil supply pressures, though it remains unclear whether a lasting peace agreement can be reached or whether Trump’s nuclear-related demands will be satisfied.

On Sunday, Trump stated on social media that he had instructed “the representatives not to rush into an agreement” and emphasized, “Both sides must take the time to get things right.”

[PANews]

Security experts: AI boosts the speed of quantum technology, and the security threat to crypto assets is arriving ahead of schedule.

May 24th news, according to Coindesk reports, security industry experts have warned that artificial intelligence technology has significantly accelerated the research and development progress of quantum computing. The originally estimated encryption security threat window has been continuously shortened, and the encryption industry urgently needs to reconstruct the digital security protection system.

Quantum computing has long been regarded as a potential huge threat to public chains such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the integrated development of AI and quantum technology further compresses the technology implementation cycle. At present, artificial intelligence has multiple attributes. It can be used as a network attack tool and can also assist in the development of a protection system, which promotes the increasingly fierce game of global network security offensive and defensive.

The scientific research field has used machine learning to overcome the technical problems of quantum error correction, and the speed of technological iteration has exceeded market expectations in the past. The industry revealed that many institutions and forces have now collected various types of encrypted data in advance, preparing to rely on future quantum equipment to complete decryption, and the hidden dangers of online data privacy and security are indeed prominent.

[PANews]