Illinois signs 0.2% crypto tax, industry calls it one of the most anti-crypto laws in the US
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker on Tuesday signed the Digital Asset Tax Act, which will impose a 0.2% tax on the transaction value of digital asset transactions or services provided to Illinois customers. The bill will take effect on January 1, 2027.
The tax primarily targets crypto service providers, including exchanges, custodians, and brokers, requiring them to collect and remit taxes on behalf of customers, similar to a sales tax mechanism.
Industry organizations such as the Crypto Council for Innovation, the Digital Chamber, and the Illinois Blockchain Association strongly opposed the bill, stating it could become one of the most stringent digital asset tax systems in the United States.
Critics argue that the tax will impose additional costs on Illinois residents simply for using digital assets and could drive crypto businesses, developers, and innovation away from the state.
[Odaily Planet Daily]
The Federal Reserve launches reforms: Walsh plans to establish five working groups to reshape the central bank’s framework
June 18th news, according to Jingshi, Fed Chairman Wush announced at his first press conference in Washington that the Fed will launch reforms, including the establishment of five new special working groups.
Wush stated, “I will establish working groups in five areas closely related to monetary policy execution – first, the Fed’s communication mechanisms; second, the Fed’s balance sheet; third, the use and reliance on existing data sources; fourth, productivity and employment issues in the era of transformation; and fifth, the Fed’s inflation framework. These issues are all of practical significance and important impact, and in my opinion, deserve a comprehensive re-examination.”
He expressed hope that most, if not all, working groups would complete their work by the end of this year. The relevant teams are currently being assembled and are expected to launch in the coming weeks, with preliminary analytical frameworks to be provided in the fall.
[PANews]
Whale Garret Jin bought 71,100 HYPE, and still has TWAP orders to continue buying
June 18th news, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, “1011 Insider Whale” agent Garret Jin has once again started buying HYPE, currently having bought 71,092 HYPE (5.06 million USD), and still has TWAP orders to continue buying.
His current perpetual positions are: 1,268.33 BTC (81.70 million USD), 50,013 ZEC (23.87 million USD), 581,241 UNI (1.88 million USD).
[PANews]
Fidelity Launches Stablecoin-Reserve Money Market Fund to Join Wall Street Competition
On June 18, Fidelity Investments launched the Fidelity Reserves Digital Fund, a money market fund targeting stablecoin issuers and institutional investors to manage stablecoin reserve assets as required by the GENIUS Act.
Fidelity’s fund will invest in U.S. Treasury securities maturing in 93 days or less, cash, Treasury-backed overnight repurchase agreements, and other compliant government money market funds.
State Street Corporation recently launched a similar product, highlighting how traditional financial institutions are racing to capture this market—which could expand to several trillion dollars.
[CoinDesk]
Satori Finance, a DEX backed by Polychain and Coinbase, announces shutdown
PANews, June 18: Satori Finance, a multichain DEX that raised $10 million in seed funding from institutions including Polychain Capital, Coinbase Ventures, and Jump Crypto, has announced its shutdown due to “persistently adverse market conditions.”
The team stated that revenue is insufficient to sustain operations, rendering the platform financially unviable. Users must withdraw their funds before 23:59 UTC on July 16; thereafter, the platform will cease operations.
According to DeFi Llama data, Satori’s total value locked (TVL) has declined from a 2024 peak of $6.7 million to $1.2 million, with annualized fees of approximately $3 million.
[The Block]
Fed Whisperer: Fed Clearly Hawkish, Policy Statement Greatly Changed
June 18 news: According to JINSHI, Nick Timiraos—the so-called “Fed Whisperer”—commented on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision: This meeting’s Fed dot plot displayed a clearly hawkish bias. Among the 18 officials, nine forecast at least one rate hike this year, and six of them even anticipate multiple hikes.
In contrast, only one official expects a rate cut this year; additionally, one participant—believed to be Fed Chair Wash—did not submit an Economic Projections Summary (SEP).
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s policy statement underwent a comprehensive revision from start to finish, with its text length significantly shortened. Overall, the communication framework for this meeting has undergone a notable shift, potentially prompting markets to recalibrate their expectations for the interest rate path.
[PANews]
Federal Reserve Dot Plot Interpretation: One Fed Member Supports 3 Rate Hikes This Year
The Fed’s dot plot shows that one official expects three rate hikes in 2026 (zero in March), five officials expect two rate hikes in 2026 (zero in March), three officials expect one rate hike in 2026 (zero in March), and eight officials expect no change to rates in 2026 (seven in March).
Additionally, one official expects one rate cut in 2026 (seven in March), zero officials expect two rate cuts in 2026 (two in March), zero officials expect three rate cuts in 2026 (two in March), and zero officials expect four rate cuts in 2026 (one in March).
Overall, the number of officials supporting rate hikes in 2026 surged to nine, including one who supports an aggressive 75-basis-point hike, while the number supporting rate cuts fell sharply to one.
[Odaily]
Kentucky Sues Prediction Markets Kalshi and Polymarket for Unlicensed, Illegal Sports Betting
June 18th news, Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman sued Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of providing illegal sports betting without obtaining a state gaming license, putting the Republican state, which voted 64% for Trump in 2024, at odds with Trump’s stance.
Trump previously stated that the regulation of prediction markets should fall under the jurisdiction of the federal CFTC and publicly supported CFTC Chairman Mike Selig in defending the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. Kentucky also accused these companies and their partners (Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull) of failing to provide gambling problem assistance resources as required by local law.
Previously, the CFTC had sued eight states to defend its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.
[PANews/CoinDesk]
Fed Chair Powell: Cannot provide any forward guidance on the next move
Fed Chair Worsh stated that he could not provide any forward-looking guidance on the next steps, and we have abandoned forward-looking guidance.
My personal submission of the dot plot is not helpful for policy execution.
[Odaily]
Middle East conflict reshapes Fed expectations: nearly half of policymakers shift to rate hike expectations, inflation forecasts revised upward across the board
Foreign media analysis points out that nearly half of the Federal Reserve’s policymakers no longer believe that simply maintaining stable borrowing costs will be sufficient to bring inflation back down to the 2% target level amid a surge in oil prices following the Iran war. The Fed’s latest dot plot reveals individual policymakers’ views on the interest rate path.
The dot plot shows that the focus of internal Fed debate has rapidly shifted: previously centered on how long rates should be held steady before cutting, it has now turned toward growing concerns about potential rate hikes—some policymakers are even convinced the Fed will need to raise rates.
Moreover, forecasts released on Wednesday indicate that since March, Fed policymakers have grown more pessimistic about inflation, reflecting the sharp rise in inflation since the outbreak of the war. The median forecast shows the PCE price index is expected to rise 3.6% year-on-year by year-end, up from a March projection of 2.7%; core PCE prices are projected to rise 3.3% year-on-year, compared to 2.7% in March; and the unemployment rate is expected to reach 4.3% by year-end—unchanged from the May actual reading but lower than the 4.4% projected in March.
This implies they increasingly believe the labor market is not weakening and does not require support via rate cuts.
[Odaily]
Markets are pricing in expectations of two interest rate hikes by the end of the year following the Federal Reserve’s decision.
June 18th news, according to JIN10, CME “FedWatch” shows: The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 64.0% (91.0% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative interest rate hike of 25 basis points is 35.1% (8.9% before the decision), and the probability of a cumulative interest rate hike of 50 basis points is 1% (0% before the decision).
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 14.2% (38.2% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative interest rate hike of 25 basis points is 36.4% (43.0% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative interest rate hike of 50 basis points is 33.8% (16.2% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative interest rate hike of 75 basis points is 13.5% (2.4% before the decision), and the probability of a cumulative interest rate hike of 100 basis points is 2.1% (0.1% before the decision).
[PANews]
Trump to Return Iran’s Frozen Money to Protect the Dollar
President Donald Trump said the United States will hand back Iran’s frozen money rather than seize it, warning that keeping the funds would destroy global confidence in the U.S. dollar. His comments at the G7 summit touched a nerve central to crypto, where the threat of asset seizure is a core argument for holding neutral, borderless reserves like Bitcoin.
Trump made the remarks at a G7 conference in France, responding to a question about whether Washington would unfreeze Iranian assets. He drew a sharp line between paying Iran and releasing money the U.S. had frozen. Trump said he had personally weighed keeping the funds before deciding against it. A recent report indicated that the US had reached $1 billion in cumulative seizure of Iranian crypto assets as of late May.
Trump argued that holding seized money would damage the dollar’s standing and its dominance as the world’s reserve asset. He linked the decision to the currency’s strength under his administration. Trump also stressed the U.S. is not financing Iran directly, contrasting the deal with past cash transfers.
The seizure question sits at the center of Bitcoin’s appeal. Each time Washington weaponizes the dollar, it strengthens the case for a neutral store of value beyond any government’s reach. That logic drives the debasement trade, where investors treat Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat risk and money printing. Trump himself has floated a strategic reserve to strengthen the country’s position.
Today’s Market Pulse
The crypto market is contending with a dual-speed headwind: the Federal Reserve has decisively turned hawkish, with 9 of 18 policymakers forecasting rate hikes this year—and simultaneously, U.S. states are escalating restrictive regulation, epitomized by Illinois’ 0.2% transaction tax and Kentucky’s lawsuit against prediction markets.
Key Themes
1. Regulatory Clampdown Accelerates
Illinois’ new Digital Asset Tax Act and Kentucky’s legal assault on Kalshi and Polymarket signal a coordinated push by states to assert control over digital assets—despite federal preemption battles (e.g., CFTC jurisdiction). These moves risk fragmenting the U.S. crypto landscape, pushing innovation abroad or into opacity.
2. Fed Pivots Hard to Hawkish
With inflation expectations revised sharply upward (PCE median now 3.6% vs. 2.7% in March) and the dot plot revealing nine officials betting on rate hikes—including one calling for three 25bps increases—the Fed has abandoned forward guidance entirely. Markets are now pricing in a 49% cumulative 50bps+ hike by year-end. This directly pressures risk assets, especially yield-starved crypto tokens.
3. Institutional Infrastructure vs. DeFi Retrenchment
While Fidelity enters the stablecoin-reserve race with Treasury-backed money funds alongside State Street, underperforming protocols like Satori Finance (TVL down 82% ytd) shutter—highlighting a bifurcation: institutional players scale compliance and scale, while speculative DeFi struggles in a high-rate, low-LP environment.
4. Geopolitical Risk Reinforces “De-dollarization” Narrative
Trump’s vow to return Iranian frozen assets—despite $1B in seized crypto holdings—ironically bolsters Bitcoin’s core thesis: when sovereigns weaponize the dollar, neutral, censorship-resistant stores of value gain appeal. This dynamic, while not immediate, could resurface as a key macro tailwind if tensions escalate.
RichSilo Verdict
Smart money should brace for volatility driven by two crosswinds: tightening monetary policy (higher for longer rates) and regulatory fragmentation. Near-term catalysts to watch: (1) the effectiveness of Fed working groups—especially on communication—could fuel market whipsaws; (2) Illinois’ tax implementation planning and Kentucky’s legal outcome may catalyze national lobbying efforts; (3) stablecoin reserve flows into Fidelity and State Street funds could subtly shift USD liquidity toward institutions, marginalizing smaller DeFi protocols further. Bitcoin’s correlation with Treasuries may rise, but its geopolitical hedge premium remains a asymmetric long-tail bet.
