What the market is truly concerned about isn't a system update, but whether Apple can embed AI into the world's largest consumer electronics ecosystem. At WWDC26 in the early hours of June 9th, Beijing time, Apple officially presented the long-awaited answer: Can Apple's AI truly fill the gap? As we all know, in the past two years, the strongest AI players have been tech giants like Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, as well as large model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. In contrast, while Apple boasts the world's strongest hardware entry point—with iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and Vision Pro—and a complete App Store ecosystem, the rollout of Apple Intelligence and Siri has consistently fallen short of expectations. Therefore, the core of this WWDC isn't just whether Apple will talk about AI, but whether it can convince the market that Apple Intelligence can truly become an AI entry point that reignites the replacement cycle, developer ecosystem, and application ecosystem. I. WWDC may not necessarily boost Apple's stock price, but it's the easiest way to create a surprise. Let's first look at historical performance. Over the past few years, WWDC hasn't been a guaranteed cause for Apple's stock price to rise. Roughly calculated from the closing price of the Friday before WWDC to the closing price on the Friday of WWDC: During the week of WWDC in 2022, AAPL (Apple's stock performance index) fell by approximately 5.7%; during the week of the Vision Pro release in 2023, AAPL remained largely flat; on the day of the Apple Intelligence release in 2024, AAPL initially fell by about 1.9%, but subsequently, the market reinterpreted the logic of "edge AI + device replacement cycle," resulting in a final increase of about 7.9% that week; after WWDC in 2025, market dissatisfaction with Siri delays and AI progress led to a drop of approximately 2.4% that week. Therefore, WWDC itself isn't a consistently rising event, but it often creates "expectation gap trading." From this perspective, if this is just a routine system update, the stock price may react modestly; however, if AI, Siri, edge capabilities, and the developer ecosystem exceed expectations, it could potentially generate a short-term wealth effect. This is why this year's WWDC is worth paying attention to in advance. II. Apple's AI Winning Strategy: Not the Model, but the Entry Point and Replacement Cycle. It's worth noting that many companies developing AI start with a model and then look for user entry points. Apple does the opposite; it already has the entry point, only the AI capabilities need to be developed. Apple's real advantage isn't the sheer number of specifications, but its system-level entry point—it can embed AI into iOS, macOS, iPadOS, watchOS, and visionOS, allowing AI to directly access Mail, Photos, Calendar, Messages, Notes, the App Store, and third-party applications. This is why Siri is so important.If Siri remains limited to "checking the weather and setting alarms," it will struggle to justify a revaluation of Apple's AI. However, if Siri can read user context, invoke different apps, and complete cross-application tasks, it will transcend being just a voice assistant and become an AI agent entry point within the Apple ecosystem. Therefore, the biggest highlight of WWDC is whether Siri has evolved from a "voice assistant" to a "system-level AI entry point." If Apple continues to rely on external models or cloud inference, Google.M, MSFT.M, and AMZN.M may be used by the market for mapping. But the true wealth effect of Apple's AI may lie not only in the software but also in the hardware. If new features of Apple Intelligence require more powerful chips, more memory, and better local inference capabilities, it will transform from a software update into a round of hardware upgrades. The advantages of edge AI are clear: it allows many tasks to operate without complete cloud reliance, resulting in faster response times; it also aligns better with Apple's long-standing emphasis on privacy and security; more importantly, it can naturally be integrated with new hardware, driving users to migrate from older iPhones and Macs to newer devices. After Apple released Apple Intelligence in 2024, the market repriced it after a brief period of disagreement, largely because people began to consider whether the integration of AI features with new devices would trigger a new upgrade cycle. This is also one of the most crucial sources of wealth effect from this year's WWDC. For the edge AI chain, AAPL.M, ARM.M, TSM.M, and QCOM.M are worth focusing on. Third, the real spillover opportunities: from the chip chain to the app ecosystem. It's important to note that WWDC is not just a one-day event, nor is it just Apple's own presentation; it's essentially a developer conference. If Apple simply adds a few AI features to the system, it's more of an AAPL story. However, if Apple opens up its AI capabilities to developers, allowing third-party apps to access local models, system-level agent capabilities, privacy computing frameworks, and new developer tools, then Apple Intelligence will transform from an Apple story into an ecosystem story. This is crucial because Apple's true moat is not a single AI feature, but the App Store ecosystem. As long as developers can integrate Apple Intelligence into creative, office, document, e-commerce, finance and tax, and productivity applications, it could potentially lead to a new wave of AI application scenarios. From an investment perspective, Apple Intelligence concept stocks can be divided into five layers: The first layer is the core entry point, AAPL.M. If Siri and Apple Intelligence exceed expectations, Apple itself will be the most direct beneficiary. The second layer is the edge AI chain, such as ARM.M, TSM.M, and QCOM.M.If Apple runs more AI capabilities on local devices, low-power chip architecture, advanced manufacturing processes, and mobile AI capabilities will regain attention. The third layer involves model-cloud collaboration, such as Google.M, MSFT.M, and AMZN.M. If Apple continues to enhance Apple Intelligence through external models or cloud capabilities, these giants will be used as models by the market. The fourth layer consists of developer tools, such as MSFT.M, TEAM.M, DDOG.M, and GTLB.M. If WWDC emphasizes AI programming, Xcode upgrades, developer APIs, and application building efficiency, the AI development ecosystem may be boosted. The fifth layer is the app ecosystem, such as ADBE.M, DOCU.M, INTU.M, and SHOP.M. If system-level AI capabilities are opened up, creative, document, finance/tax, and e-commerce applications will be most likely to integrate new features. Of course, while this path is promising, it also carries risks. First, Apple's AI may be all talk and no action. Second, the spillover effects may not immediately translate into revenue. Third, Apple's AI upgrades may benefit AAPL.M itself more. Fourth, the valuation recovery of AAPL.M ultimately depends on iPhone demand. Therefore, Apple Intelligence concept stocks can be traded based on expectations, but should not be simply interpreted as "a guaranteed rise after WWDC." In conclusion: Before WWDC, the market traded on expectations; after WWDC, the market will begin to verify whether Apple's AI has actually brought about substantial changes. If Apple is just adding a few AI features, it may just be a regular software update. But if Siri becomes a system-level AI entry point, on-device AI is tied to new hardware, and developer tools open up new capabilities, then Apple Intelligence will not just be Apple's own story, but could potentially drive a new chain of US stock market developments. It all depends on whether it can embed AI into the world's largest consumer electronics ecosystem. [MSX Maitong]