Bitcoin may be following a similar path to the March 2022 bear market, with demand weakening and market sentiment turning “extremely bearish,” according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin’s recent rally hit resistance at the 200-day moving average near $82,400 before falling back to as low as $76,000, CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, said in a Wednesday report. The move “directly mirrors” what happened in March 2022, when bitcoin rallied 43% from its lows before hitting the 200-day moving average and resuming its downtrend, Moreno noted, adding that bitcoin rose around 37% from its April 2026 lows before facing a similar resistance level.

“In bear markets, the 200-day MA has consistently acted as the boundary between relief rally territory and trend resumption,” Moreno said. A failure to move above the 200-day moving average, as happened in both March 2022 and now, is historically “the strongest technical confirmation that the bear market remains structurally intact,” he added.

Bitcoin demand has also turned negative. Moreno noted that speculative demand in perpetual futures, which was one of the main drivers of the April-May rally, slowed sharply after bitcoin moved above $82,000 and traders began closing leveraged long positions. At the same time, spot demand has been contracting at a slightly faster pace, Moreno said.

U.S.-based spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have also turned into net sellers. Moreno noted ETFs sold around 4,000 bitcoin on a net basis after buying as much as 64,000 bitcoin over a 30-day period earlier in May.

Analysts at Bitfinex pointed to the speed of the recent selloff as a sign that the brief rally earlier this year was always sitting on a structural shortfall.

Similarly, Moreno noted the Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium had remained negative during both the April-May rally and the subsequent correction. He added that the negative premium shows that U.S. institutional and retail investors have not returned to the market in a meaningful way. Historically, sustained bitcoin bull markets have usually been accompanied by a positive Coinbase premium.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has also weakened significantly. Moreno said the indicator has dropped from 40 back to 20, which the firm classifies as “extremely bearish” territory. This matches the readings recorded during the February-March 2026 episode when bitcoin declined to $60,000-$66,000, Moreno added. Historically, readings between 0 and 20 have often been followed by either “further price declines or an extended period of sideways compression.”

If bitcoin’s correction continues, Moreno sees around $70,000 as the key support level, or the Traders’ Onchain Realized Price. This metric has acted as support or resistance during previous stages of the bear market, including during rallies in October 2025 and January 2026, Moreno noted.

At that level, traders would have zero or negative unrealized profit left, reducing the incentive to sell and historically helping demand return to stabilize prices, Moreno said.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,320, up about 0.6% over the past 24 hours, according to The Block’s bitcoin price page.

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[CryptoQuant]

RichSilo Visions:

Executive Summary (TL;DR)

Bitcoin’s failure to break above the 200-day moving average mirrors 2022’s false breakout, confirming the bear market structure remains intact despite recent rallies.

The Core Friction

The fundamental conflict here is between the institutional adoption narrative and the actual on-chain reality. While market participants have been conditioned to view ETF inflows as a bullish catalyst, CryptoQuant’s data reveals a troubling disconnect: spot ETFs have flipped to net sellers, Coinbase premium remains negative, and speculative demand has evaporated. This suggests the recent rally was fueled by leveraged speculation rather than organic institutional interest—a classic bull trap setup. The market is grappling with cognitive dissonance: prices rose, but the underlying demand structure never followed.

Market Impact & Chain Reaction

Short-term: Bitcoin faces immediate downside pressure toward the $70,000 Traders’ Onchain Realized Price support. This level has historically acted as a floor where sellers exhaust themselves. Altcoins, particularly those without fundamental utility, will likely underperform significantly as risk appetite deteriorates. The leverage unwinding in perpetual futures could accelerate if Bitcoin breaks below key support levels.

Mid-term: The current setup favors risk-off assets and stablecoin yield strategies over volatile cryptocurrencies. Projects with strong on-chain fundamentals and real-world utility may begin to decouple from Bitcoin’s price action, creating relative opportunities. This pattern could benefit alternative blockchain structures that offer yield generation or deflationary mechanisms, as capital seeks refuge from purely speculative assets.

RichSilo Verdict

Smart money should watch two critical indicators: sustained closes above the 200-day moving average and a return of positive Coinbase premium. Until these materialize, the path of least resistance remains downward. The current “extremely bearish” reading on CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index suggests we’re in the early to middle stages of a bear market correction, not a temporary dip. Position defensively, allocate to high-quality projects with tangible token utility, and prepare for extended sideways action if the $70,000 support holds.