Crypto Regulatory Shifts Drive Market Dynamics (2026-04-29)

Ethereum mainnet monthly transaction count hits a new high, while transaction fees hit a new low

According to Token Terminal data, the number of monthly Ethereum transactions has reached a new all-time high, exceeding 70.00 million.

Meanwhile, the median transaction fee is approximately $0.00554, a new all-time low.

[Foresight News]

Trump reiterated that he would not agree to any final agreement unless Iran’s nuclear program is completely dismantled.

May 24th news, according to Kann, an Israeli media outlet cited by Jinshi, the United States is keeping Israel informed of the latest developments regarding negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and consultations with Iran on unresolved issues.

In a call with Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stressed Israel’s right to take action against threats in the region, including Lebanon, and Trump supported this position.

Trump reiterated to Netanyahu that he would not agree to any final agreement unless Iran’s nuclear program was completely dismantled and all enriched uranium was shipped out of the country.

[PANews]

SpaceX may be quickly included in mainstream indexes such as QQQ and VTI after its IPO, with a Nasdaq 100 weighting of approximately 0.47-0.7%.

SpaceX is set to launch its IPO, with an expected fundraising of $50 billion to $75 billion, implying a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion—potentially making it the largest IPO in history. Analysts note that SpaceX’s exceptionally high valuation suggests it could swiftly enter major mainstream indices and ETFs upon listing, with passive fund allocations potentially accelerating far beyond those seen in previous large-scale IPOs.

Under current rules and potential reforms:

  1. The CRSP index, tracked by Vanguard’s broad-market ETF VTI and growth-oriented ETF VUG, could include SpaceX as early as five trading days after its listing;

  2. The Nasdaq-100 Index, tracked by QQQ, could add SpaceX as early as 15 trading days post-listing;

  3. The Russell 1000 and Russell 1000 Growth Indices are expected to include SpaceX as early as September and December this year, respectively;

  4. The S&P 500 Index, tracked by SPY, may incorporate SpaceX in 2027—subject to rule amendments.

SpaceX’s weight in the Nasdaq-100 is projected to reach 0.47%–0.70%, exceeding its weight in most float-adjusted market-cap-weighted indices. Analysts suggest that as lock-up periods expire and more insider shareholders sell shares, SpaceX’s public float could expand, further increasing its weight in mainstream indices.

However, SpaceX’s most pressing current issue is its relatively low “public float.” Based on its current capital structure, its publicly tradable share percentage stands at only ~2.86%–3.75%, significantly below the >80% average for most large U.S. tech companies. This will constrain its weight in indices employing a “float-adjusted market-cap weighting” methodology.

[Odaily]

Analysis: WLFI spends $115.00 million to open up the market for USD1, stablecoin size increases by 50.00%, and trading volume increases by 10 times

On May 24, according to on-chain analyst Yu Jin’s analysis, WLFI has spent over $115 million (in WLFI tokens) over the past four months to promote USD1, including interest subsidies for USD1 on CEXs (e.g., Binance, Bybit), event subsidies on Aster, and interest subsidies on on-chain lending platforms (e.g., Dolomite).

As a result, USD1’s total supply has increased by 50% (from $3.137 billion to $4.76 billion), elevating its ranking among USD-pegged stablecoins from #7 to #4—surpassing USDe and PYUSD—and now trailing only USDT, USDC, and DAI.

[PANews]

Iranian President says Iran is ready to declare to the world at any time that it is not seeking nuclear weapons.

In an interview with the Iranian state news agency, Iranian President Pezeshkian mentioned the possibility of future negotiations with the United States. Pezeshkian stated that Iran is always ready to declare to the world that it does not seek nuclear weapons, nor does it seek to create regional unrest.

In the interview, Pezeshkian criticized Israel, accusing it of undermining regional stability and provoking wars and conflicts in various ways. Pezeshkian said that the Iranian government and Iran’s negotiating delegation will never compromise on issues involving national honor and dignity.

[Odaily]

Iranian Media Rejects US Media Reports on Proposed US-Iran Agreement, Saying It Only Represents the US Perspective

According to Iran’s Mehr News Agency, an informed source denied the report by US media Axios regarding the content of a proposed memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, stating that these claims only represent the US side’s narrative and cannot be confirmed by Iran.

Axios previously reported that the proposed agreement included extending the ceasefire period between the two sides by 60 days, reopening the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, and Iran clearing mines within the Strait. The source denied the above-mentioned details and refused to acknowledge that these contents represent Iran’s position.

[Golden Ten Data]

Sources: Iran Has Not Agreed to Hand Over Highly Enriched Uranium Stockpile

A senior Iranian source says Iran has not agreed to hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium; the Iranian nuclear issue is not part of the initial agreement.

[Golden Ten Data]

USD1’s circulating supply increased by 50% within 4 months, while its trading volume grew 10-fold during the same period.

According to Ember Monitoring, WLFI has subsidized USD1 through WLFI tokens in the past 4 months. During the same period, the circulating supply of USD1 increased from approximately 3.1370B to approximately 4.7600B, surpassing USDe and PYUSD, and is second only to USDT, USDC, and DAI.

In addition, the average daily trading volume of USD1 also increased from approximately $200.00M to $2.00B.

[Foresight News]

CFTC crypto oversight questioned after officials were pushed out

Senior Commodity Futures Trading Commission officials who raised concerns about prediction market firms were suspended, investigated and pushed out, according to a New York Times investigation. The NYT reported that career officials questioned activity tied to Polymarket, Crypto.com and a Gemini affiliate. Staff raised concerns over consumer treatment, fraud controls and whether one affiliate had finished a needed regulatory review.

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The report said then-acting CFTC chair Caroline Pham and senior counsel Brigitte Weyls later helped the firms move forward. The NYT said two officials who raised questions were placed on administrative leave by late 2025, and three other staff members tied to crypto enforcement also faced the same action.

The NYT report said the CFTC pulled back from crypto enforcement under the current administration, dropping at least five crypto probes and filing only two crypto enforcement cases, both against individual operators. The article also said staff saw a clear message inside the agency: “Don’t cause trouble.” The White House denied conflict claims, with spokesman Davis Ingle telling the NYT, “There are no conflicts of interest.”

Related coverage reported that the CFTC gave no-action relief for fully collateralized event contracts listed on regulated exchanges, covering some swap data reporting and recordkeeping duties. The CFTC also opened a wider rule process for prediction markets in March, seeking public comment on event contracts, public interest limits, cost-benefit issues and possible future rules.

Meanwhile, prediction market platforms face state-level legal fights even as federal officials support broader CFTC control. The CFTC had challenged actions in Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York and Wisconsin, and Reuters reported that the CFTC sued New York on April 24, accusing the state of intruding on federal authority after New York sued Coinbase Financial Markets and Gemini Titan over prediction market products.

Congress has also raised concern over the CFTC’s thin leadership bench. The House Agriculture Committee last week pressed President Trump to fill the agency’s four vacant commissioner seats, saying a one-member commission cannot keep pace with its expanding crypto and prediction market duties.

Polymarket has been in active talks with the CFTC to lift a four-year U.S. ban tied to a 2022 enforcement action and $1.4 million settlement, with talks centering on contract design, KYC and reporting. Polymarket bought QCX LLC, a CFTC-registered exchange, for about $112 million in 2025, a deal that could help the platform build a regulated U.S. path if officials approve the plan.

The dispute now comes as Congress weighs broader crypto rules. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act in a 15-9 vote, a bill that would split digital asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC.

[crypto.news]

Multiple CFTC officials who questioned the regulatory market forecast were suspended and forced to resign.

A Sunday investigative report by The New York Times revealed that several senior CFTC officials who had raised regulatory concerns about Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Gemini affiliates were subsequently suspended, internally investigated, and forced to leave their positions. All three companies were allegedly linked to the Trump family through business associations.

The report stated that Caroline Pham, the acting chair of the CFTC at the time, and her senior advisors intervened to help the aforementioned companies obtain the necessary approvals. By the end of 2025, five officials who had raised questions or enforced crypto regulatory rules were placed on administrative leave and subjected to internal investigations, without being informed of the specific reasons.

After leaving the CFTC, Pham joined MoonPay, a crypto company that partners with Polymarket, while her senior advisor, Brigitte Weyls, became the general counsel of Gemini Titan—a company whose application she had helped approve.

On the enforcement front, the CFTC has dropped at least 5 crypto investigations, and the number of enforcement actions has plummeted from over 80 under Biden to just 2 during Trump’s term. In response, a White House spokesperson denied any conflict of interest, stating that “President Trump will only act in the best interests of the American public.”

[Cointelegraph]

The next round of talks between the U.S. and Iran may be held on June 5.

May 24th news, according to Xinhua News Agency reports, sources revealed that the next round of talks between the United States and Iran may be held on June 5th.

[PANews]

Multiple U.S. CFTC officials who questioned prediction market platforms have been suspended and marginalized.

Several senior officials from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) who had raised compliance concerns about prediction market platforms were subsequently suspended, internally investigated, and ultimately forced to leave their positions. The report stated that these officials had raised concerns about the following companies: Polymarket lacking adequate anti-fraud mechanisms; Crypto.com failing to treat small-betting users fairly; and a Gemini affiliate not having completed the necessary regulatory reviews.

The investigation pointed out that the above-mentioned companies were all believed to have business connections with the Trump family. Sources said that Caroline Pham, the acting chairman of the CFTC at the time, and her senior advisors intervened to help relevant companies obtain regulatory approval.

By the end of 2025, two officials who raised concerns were placed on administrative leave and subjected to internal investigations, and three other officials in charge of crypto enforcement also encountered the same treatment, without being informed of the specific reasons. The report stated that this created a signal within the CFTC of “don’t make trouble for related industries.”

The CFTC significantly reduced its crypto enforcement efforts during the Trump era: the agency initiated more than 80 crypto enforcement actions during Biden’s term, compared to only two during Trump’s term, both of which targeted individual operators rather than large companies. In addition, after leaving the CFTC, Caroline Pham joined MoonPay, which has a cooperative relationship with Polymarket; her former senior advisor, Brigitte Weyls, joined Gemini Titan as general counsel. Current CFTC Chairman Michael Selig previously served as a corporate lawyer for several crypto companies.

[Cointelegraph]

RichSilo Visions:

Today’s Market Pulse

The dominant theme is shifting regulatory landscapes in crypto markets, with significant geopolitical tensions and technical efficiency gains creating diverging market conditions across assets.

Key Themes

Regulatory Shifts and Enforcement Changes

The CFTC is undergoing substantial changes with senior officials who questioned prediction market platforms being sidelined. This coincides with a dramatic reduction in enforcement actions, dropping from over 80 during the Biden administration to just two under Trump. The agency’s apparent shift toward industry-friendly oversight may create opportunities for platforms like Polymarket, while potentially increasing systemic risks in the absence of robust oversight.

Geopolitical Uncertainty and Market Impact

Heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran create geopolitical uncertainty that could impact risk assets. Trump‘s insistence on complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program and Iran’s refusal to compromise suggest continued stalemate. These tensions could drive safe-haven flows into traditional assets while potentially pressuring crypto markets sensitive to geopolitical risk.

Blockchain Efficiency and Adoption

Ethereum shows positive development with monthly transactions reaching new highs while fees hit record lows. This indicates improved network efficiency and growing adoption, potentially accelerating DeFi development and making the network more accessible for everyday use.

Stablecoin Competition Intensifies

USD1 has experienced remarkable growth, with its supply increasing 50% and trading volume growing 10-fold after WLFI invested $115 million in subsidies. This aggressive market penetration has elevated USD1 to the fourth-largest USD-pegged stablecoin, intensifying competition in the stablecoin sector and impacting yields across the market.

RichSilo Verdict

Smart money should monitor the CFTC’s evolving regulatory approach as it appears to be pivoting toward more permissive oversight, potentially creating asymmetric opportunities in prediction markets and DeFi platforms. The SpaceX IPO represents a significant event that could drive inflows into Nasdaq-traded assets and ETFs tracking major indexes. Geopolitical tensions remain a wildcard that could impact risk sentiment across asset classes, while Ethereum’s efficiency gains suggest sustained utility growth. The most immediate catalyst to watch is the June 5 US-Iran talks, which could either de-escalate tensions or create new market uncertainties.

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