In this episode of The Rollup, Arthur Hayes and Illia Polosukhin were invited to discuss macro liquidity, privacy assets, NEAR Intents, AI and on-chain execution layer, as well as the investment thesis for HYPE, NEAR, and ZEC.
Arthur believes that war, an AI arms race, and supply chain restructuring are driving the U.S., China, and Europe to continue supporting their economies through debt and monetary expansion, with liquidity eventually spilling over into Bitcoin and a few crypto-assets with real narratives and income.
Illia emphasizes that for blockchain to enter daily payments, wages, invoices, and AI agent economies, privacy is not optional but a prerequisite for mass adoption. Both agree that the crypto market is transitioning from indiscriminate speculation to fundamental screening, where privacy, sovereignty, real income, and token value capture will be the most important themes in the next phase.
Regarding macro liquidity, Arthur Hayes notes that AI has become part of national defense. Drones, AI intelligence, and battlefield decisions are being integrated into the war system, and governments will print money to win wars. Countries used to base their food and energy supply on a lot of assumptions, but when key waterways like the Strait of Hormuz become unstable, holding U.S. Treasury bonds does not help them feed their people. Savings held in the form of U.S. Treasury bonds need to be eventually sold to purchase real goods, build redundant supply chains, and energy pathways. The benefit of Bitcoin is that if tomorrow’s fiat unit is more abundant than today’s, its price will rise mathematically, which is pure mathematics, while everything else is highly dependent on narrative.
On the topic of L1 public chain integration, Illia Polosukhin explains that blockchain space has become a very common commodity, and the supply far exceeds the demand. The only problem in the past was that this commodity was highly non-fungible. NEAR’s bet on chain abstraction and intent is to make them fungible. In other words, every chain, every asset, every user can truly connect without worrying about which block of space they are using. The old logic is disappearing: we used to buy an asset because a bunch of retail investors would come in behind us to continue buying. Now retail investor risk appetite has decreased significantly. People are more concerned about whether they can afford oil and food next year, rather than speculating on an asset. The market is shifting its focus to assets that truly generate income, truly have products and users. For a layer-one public chain, full dilution is very important. Many projects still face significant institutional unlock pressure overhead, while NEAR already has relatively clean headroom.
Discussing Zcash and privacy assets, Arthur Hayes states that there is nothing more normal than having private money on the internet. Zcash and Monero represent this demand. As big tech, governments, and AI become increasingly able to track everything in our lives, cryptographically proven money privacy will become extremely important. If you hold Zcash but don’t use shielded holdings, why are you even holding it? Zcash and NEAR form the core of my privacy investment thesis: in a world where AI, big tech, and big government coexist, privacy will be revalued by the market, and Maelstrom will benefit from it. I believe NEAR has 20x potential in the next year, while Zcash may be around 5x.
On NEAR Intent, privacy transactions, and mass adoption, Illia Polosukhin argues that if we want blockchain to truly enter everyday life, it is impossible without privacy; privacy is actually a prerequisite for mass adoption of encryption. If I’m paying at a coffee shop, I don’t want the store to know how much money I have, nor do I want the whole world to know I just spent there. Privacy intent aims to address not only holding a private asset but also ensuring that transfers, transactions, payments, earnings, and more can be kept confidential across all assets. Many use cases that were once considered suitable for crypto, such as payroll and invoicing, are actually really hard to happen in a fully transparent on-chain environment.
Regarding AI agents and the on-chain execution layer, Illia notes that in the future, we will be using AI for computations, and blockchain will be the way everything gets executed. AI needs privacy too. You don’t want the lab to harvest your data to train better models and then sell the service back to you through a subscription fee. AI is a new computing interface, with the intent behind being the business layer. Our core thesis back in 2017 was that AI would become the way we build software and interact with computation.
Finally, on Hyperliquid and the decentralized finance dream, Arthur Hayes remarks that trading platforms are one of the killer apps in the crypto space. The most critical part of Hyperliquid isn’t how novel the perpetual contract or the decentralized trading platform itself is, but it gets the tokenomics right. With no VC pre-sale, only team allocation, and almost all revenue going back to token holders, this is very rare in a project of this scale.
[Deep Tide TechFlow]
The Privacy Revolution: NEAR, ZEC, and the AI-Blockchain Convergence
In a recent episode of The Rollup, Arthur Hayes and NEAR Protocol co-founder Illia Polosukhin delivered a compelling vision for the crypto market’s evolution, centered around privacy, macro liquidity, and the intersection of AI and blockchain. Their conversation reveals a significant narrative shift in the industry—one moving beyond speculative hype toward fundamental value propositions. For experienced investors, this interview provides critical insights into where capital might flow in the next market cycle.
Macro Liquidity and the Crypto Market Paradigm Shift
Hayes presents a sobering yet optimistic macro thesis: the ongoing geopolitical tensions, AI arms race, and supply chain restructuring are forcing major economies to continue supporting their economies through debt and monetary expansion. This isn’t merely cyclical but structural, with liquidity eventually spilling over into Bitcoin and select crypto assets with substantive narratives.
What’s particularly noteworthy is Hayes’ characterization of the market transition: “The crypto market is transitioning from indiscriminate speculation to fundamental screening.” This represents a maturation phase where projects must demonstrate real utility, user adoption, and sustainable token economics. The era of “buy the rumor, sell the news” may be giving way to a more discerning investment environment.
For investors, this means:
– Bitcoin’s “pure mathematics” (fixed supply) will continue to underpin its digital gold narrative
– Projects without clear value propositions will struggle to attract institutional capital
– Tokenomics that capture protocol value will become increasingly important
NEAR Protocol: The Privacy Powerhouse with 20x Potential?
Perhaps the most striking revelation in the interview is Hayes’ explicit belief that “NEAR has 20x potential in the next year.” While such bold predictions should be viewed with appropriate skepticism, they reflect significant confidence in the protocol’s positioning and roadmap.
Polosukhin makes a compelling case that blockchain mass adoption requires privacy as a prerequisite, not a feature: “If I’m paying at a coffee shop, I don’t want the store to know how much money I have, nor do I want the whole world to know I just spent there.” This perspective challenges the transparency-first ethos that dominated early blockchain development and positions NEAR’s privacy-focused approach ahead of the curve.
Several factors support NEAR’s potential upside:
-
Clean Dilution: Unlike many L1 projects facing significant institutional unlock pressure, NEAR has “relatively clean headroom,” reducing future selling pressure.
-
Chain Abstraction: NEAR’s focus on making blockchain services fungible addresses a critical usability barrier that has hindered mainstream adoption.
-
Privacy Intent: Unlike privacy coins that focus solely on holding assets privately, NEAR’s approach ensures that transfers, transactions, payments, and earnings can remain confidential across all assets—essential for real-world use cases like payroll and invoicing.
However, the 20x thesis assumes several catalysts materializing:
– Successful implementation of NEAR Intents
– Privacy features gaining mainstream acceptance
– AI integration creating substantial demand for the protocol
– Continued development of the ecosystem beyond developer-focused applications
Privacy Assets: The Undervalued Narrative
Both Hayes and Polosukhin position privacy not as a niche concern but as essential infrastructure for blockchain’s next phase of growth. Hayes argues: “If you hold Zcash but don’t use shielded holdings, why are you even holding it?” This cuts to the core of what makes privacy assets fundamentally different from their transparent counterparts.
The interview highlights several key points about privacy’s importance:
-
AI Surveillance: As AI becomes increasingly integrated into daily life, the ability to keep financial transactions private becomes paramount. Hayes notes that “cryptographically proven money privacy will become extremely important” in a world where “AI, big tech, and big government coexist.”
-
Real-World Applications: Privacy isn’t just about hiding wealth but enabling practical use cases like payroll systems, invoicing, and everyday payments—applications that are “actually really hard to happen in a fully transparent on-chain environment.”
-
Market Revaluation: Hayes believes privacy will be “revalued by the market,” with both NEAR and ZEC benefiting from this trend.
For investors, this suggests privacy-focused protocols may be significantly undervalued relative to their potential impact on blockchain adoption. However, regulatory risks remain a concern, as privacy features could attract increased scrutiny from regulators.
AI and Blockchain: The Next Frontier
The interview’s discussion about AI and blockchain integration represents perhaps the most compelling long-term narrative. Polosukhin’s vision—”in the future, we will be using AI for computations, and blockchain will be the way everything gets executed”—positions these technologies as complementary rather than competitive.
Key insights from this discussion:
-
Privacy for AI: AI agents will need privacy to prevent “labs to harvest your data to train better models and then sell the service back to you through a subscription fee.”
-
Intent-Centric Architecture: AI will serve as the “new computing interface,” with blockchain intents forming the “business layer.” This creates a natural fit for protocols like NEAR that focus on intent-based interactions.
-
Execution Layer: Blockchain provides the trustless execution layer for AI computations, addressing a critical gap in current AI infrastructure.
This convergence could create substantial value for protocols that successfully bridge these technologies, particularly as AI becomes increasingly integrated into business operations and daily life.
Hyperliquid: The Tokenomics Gold Standard
In discussing Hyperliquid, Hayes identifies “trading platforms” as one of crypto’s “killer apps” and praises the project’s tokenomics as “very rare in a project of this scale.” The key differentiator is Hyperliquid’s approach: no VC pre-sale, only team allocation, with nearly all revenue going back to token holders.
This model represents a significant departure from the venture capital-dominated landscape that has characterized many DeFi projects. For investors, the implications are clear:
- Projects that align token holder interests with protocol success will attract and retain capital
- Revenue-sharing models are likely to become increasingly valuable in bear markets
- Trading platforms remain critical infrastructure that will continue to generate significant fees
Hayes’ $150 price target for HYPE reflects confidence in both the project’s fundamentals and the strength of its tokenomics. However, this target assumes continued user growth and competitive positioning against both centralized and decentralized exchanges.
Investment Implications and Risk Considerations
The interview suggests several strategic shifts for crypto investors:
-
Portfolio Allocation: Increased allocation to privacy-focused protocols like NEAR and ZEC, balanced with established assets like Bitcoin.
-
Due Diligence Focus: Projects must demonstrate clear paths to revenue, user adoption, and sustainable token economics. “Clean dilution” and proper tokenomics are becoming table stakes.
-
Narrative Alignment: The macro liquidity thesis suggests continued capital inflow into crypto, but only for projects with substantive narratives tied to real-world problems.
However, significant risks remain:
- Regulatory Uncertainty: Privacy features could attract regulatory scrutiny, potentially limiting adoption or creating legal challenges.
- Execution Risk: NEAR’s ambitious roadmap for privacy and intents faces significant technical challenges.
- Market Sentiment: Despite the shift toward fundamentals, crypto markets remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments.
- Competition: The L1 and privacy spaces remain highly competitive, with many projects vying for attention and developer resources.
Conclusion: The Privacy-First Crypto Future
The conversation between Hayes and Polosukhin paints a picture of a crypto market in transition—one moving beyond speculation toward fundamental value creation centered around privacy, AI integration, and sustainable tokenomics. While Hayes’ 20x upside target for NEAR is highly optimistic, it reflects a coherent investment thesis in a market where differentiation is increasingly difficult.
For investors, the key takeaway is that privacy is not merely a feature but a prerequisite for blockchain’s next phase of growth. Projects that successfully integrate privacy into their core architecture—like NEAR with its intent-based approach—may be positioned to capture disproportionate value as the market matures.
As always, investors should balance optimism with rigorous due diligence, recognizing that while the narrative is compelling, execution risk and market volatility remain significant factors. The privacy revolution in crypto has just begun, but the interview suggests that the winners in this next phase will be those who build real utility, not just hype.