Ether’s recent price weakness does not reflect Ethereum’s improving internal metrics, according to Standard Chartered Bank, which compares ETH’s current setup to Amazon during the 2001 dot-com bubble burst.
“I view ETH’s performance very much as Jeff Bezos described AMZN share price during the 2001 tech bubble burst. This quote, from a 2018 speech, encapsulates the point: ‘The stock is not the company. And the company is not the stock. And so, as I watched the stock fall from $113 to $6, I was also watching all of our internal business metrics… every single thing about the business was getting better. And so, while the stock price was going the wrong way, everything inside the company was going the right way,'” Standard Chartered Bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoffrey Kendrick said in an email while sharing a new report on Ethereum Thursday.
“I also note AMZN share price (once adjusted for stock splits) has multiplied 1000x since the 2001 lows. ETH will catch up to the internal metrics, it is just a matter of time,” Kendrick added.
Ethereum’s internal metrics, such as transaction numbers and total value locked or TVL measured in ETH terms, both remain near all-time highs, Kendrick said. However, the ether price has fallen around 57% from its August 2025 high to roughly $2,000, while the ETH-bitcoin ratio has declined around 37% over the same period, he added.
Stronger metrics should eventually drive stronger ETH prices, according to Kendrick, who maintained his bullish long-term ETH forecasts, reiterating price targets of $4,000 by the end of 2026 and $40,000 by the end of 2030. He also expects the ETH-BTC ratio to recover toward the 2021 highs around 0.08 by the end of the decade.
A major part of Kendrick’s bullish thesis is Ethereum’s dominance in stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets, or RWAs.
Kendrick reiterated his forecast that the stablecoin market cap could rise sixfold to around $2 trillion by the end of 2028 from about $321 billion currently. He noted that 54% of all stablecoins are currently on Ethereum and that stablecoins account for around one-third of all Ethereum transactions in 2026 year-to-date, as well as 60% of gross TVL on the network.
Expected growth in the stablecoin market cap would likely continue pushing more activity into the Ethereum ecosystem and help drive ETH prices higher, according to Kendrick.
As for tokenized non-stablecoin RWAs, Kendrick reiterated that the sector could grow 50 times to $2 trillion by the end of 2028. Ethereum currently dominates that sector as well, hosting around 62% of RWAs and 68% of active onchain loans, he noted.
“If RWAs multiply by 50x over the next few years as we expect, the importance of this sector to Ethereum is set to increase dramatically. As a result, we would expect transaction numbers and total value locked to continue to print all-time highs going forward, pushing ETH prices higher,” Kendrick said.
He also highlighted the upcoming launch of the Ethereum Economic Zone, or EEZ, which is designed to allow assets to move more freely across the Ethereum ecosystem and improve composability between protocols. Kendrick said the system could reduce reliance on blockchain bridges, which have historically been vulnerable to hacks, while improving usability across Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible chains.
On the regulatory side, Kendrick also pointed to progress around the Clarity Act or crypto market structure bill in the U.S., noting that clearer digital asset regulations could further support decentralized finance growth and Ethereum activity levels.
[The Block]
Executive Summary (TL;DR)
Standard Chartered’s bullish ETH thesis compares Ethereum to Amazon’s post-bubble recovery, suggesting disconnect between price and fundamentals. The bank’s $40k 2030 target hinges on Ethereum’s dominance in stablecoins and RWAs, creating a narrative of deferred rather than diminished value.
The Core Friction
The fundamental tension lies between market perception and on-chain reality. As Standard Chartered‘s Geoffrey Kendrick observes, ETH’s price action reflects traditional crypto market sentiment cycles, while its internal metrics demonstrate structural strength. The comparison to Amazon‘s 2001-2008 recovery is apt but incomplete—it ignores the competitive landscape that didn’t exist for Bezos. Today, Ethereum faces more credible competition in smart contract platforms and L2 solutions, creating friction between the bank’s narrative and market skepticism about its ability to maintain dominance.
Market Impact & Chain Reaction
- Short-term: The divergence between price and metrics will likely intensify volatility as traders debate Kendrick‘s thesis. ETH may continue underperforming Bitcoin until clearer catalysts emerge, potentially testing the $2k support. The ETH-BTC ratio’s decline reflects a broader market preference for risk-off positioning in crypto.
- Mid-term: If stablecoin and RWA growth projections materialize, Ethereum could experience a re-rating as institutions recognize its utility beyond DeFi speculation. The Ethereum Economic Zone launch could become a pivotal moment, either validating composability benefits or revealing integration challenges that competitors might exploit.
RichSilo Verdict
Smart money should watch two critical indicators: stablecoin market share across chains and RWA adoption rates. Kendrick’s $40k target requires Ethereum to maintain its dominance in these high-growth sectors against mounting competition. The comparison to Amazon’s recovery creates a compelling narrative, but the crypto market’s shorter attention span means ETH must deliver visible utility gains within 12-18 months to avoid becoming this cycle’s “value trap.” The upcoming Clarity Act regulatory framework could either accelerate or derail this timeline, making policy developments equally important as on-chain metrics.
