The largest IPO in history is coming: SpaceX hasn’t rung the bell yet, but Wall Street has already lost to it.

Without an exchange license, market maker qualifications, or any endorsement from Wall Street, the on-chain market won. In May 2026, an AI chip company called Cerebras officially listed on Nasdaq. At the opening, the reference price given by the traditional pre-market platform Forge Global differed from the final opening price by 208%; another pre-market platform, Hiive, also had a deviation as high as 56%. However, on another market—the Hyperliquid chain—the Cerebras perpetual contract, which went live several days in advance, had a final error of only 3% from the opening price. In the IPO process, there is an almost insurmountable wall between ordinary investors and institutions. OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX—the fastest-growing technology assets of the past decade—were almost all born in the primary market. Silicon Valley VCs, Wall Street banks, and high-net-worth family offices entered the market when the companies were valued at billions; while when ordinary investors first had the opportunity to buy in, it was often on the day of the IPO—the valuation had already been pushed to hundreds of billions, and the first wave of gains had already been distributed. Pre-market trading was meant to be a supplementary mechanism, but its entry isn't open to everyone. Forge's threshold is an annual income of $200,000 or a net worth exceeding $1 million, while Hiive is a similar institutional club. This door is one that most people can never open in their lifetime. Hyperliquid is changing that. When Hyperliquid first launched, some voices in the crypto community said, "This thing is too much like traditional finance." But the irony of history is that past criticisms have now become the biggest barrier. As tokenized stocks, pre-IPO contracts, and commodity trading begin to emerge on-chain, the platform that "most resembles traditional finance" is precisely the one that first meets this demand. Hyperliquid is a high-performance blockchain designed specifically for derivatives trading, where all transactions, matching, and clearing are completed on-chain. Last October, it launched HIP-3, allowing any qualified developer to independently deploy and operate a perpetual contract market, defining the underlying assets, selecting price oracles, and setting parameter rules. Hyperunit, Hyperliquid's asset tokenization division, built Trade.xyz on top of this—currently the largest third-party application in the HIP-3 ecosystem, controlling over 90% of open interest and connecting on-chain matching capabilities to the most valuable off-chain assets: US stocks, indices, commodities, and the soon-to-be-launched Pre-IPO sector. In less than six months since its launch, Trade.xyz has accumulated over $110 billion in trading volume, with a peak single-day trading volume of $5.6 billion and over 45,000 daily active trading addresses. Of its top 30 trading markets, only 7 are cryptocurrency trading pairs, with the rest entirely from stocks, commodities, and indices.Behind this number lies a larger structural change: Hyperliquid is using the logic of traditional financial markets to do what traditional finance cannot—24/7, barrier-free, two-way game-based price discovery. This is the root cause of Cerebras' 3% error, as well as the root cause of the 208% and 56% biases. The problem with traditional pre-market markets is not technology, but structure. The structures of Forge and Hiive dictate that they can only be mirrors, not markets. Participants are uniformly buyers who "want to enter" and sellers who "want to exit," and prices are only pushed in one direction; the update frequency is also extremely low, one relying on an algorithm to output once a day, and the other driven by scattered transactions. Prices have no opportunity to be questioned, and naturally, no opportunity to be corrected. Trade.xyz's structure is completely different: it operates continuously 24/7, updating prices every 3 seconds, and any breaking news is reflected instantly. On a Saturday in February this year, the US and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, the CME closed, and the daily trading volume of crude oil on Hyperliquid jumped from $21 million to $3.7 billion in a single day—at such times, on-chain is the only price discovery machine still functioning. Trade.xyz's contracts are purely perpetual synthetic assets, involving no real equity, and are cash-settled derivatives. This legal structure gives it far greater flexibility than traditional pre-market platforms, as evidenced by S&P Dow Jones' official authorization of the S&P 500 index for Hyperliquid perpetual contract trading. More importantly, it allows anyone holding USDC globally to participate, with no asset threshold, no geographical restrictions, and supports both long and short positions with leverage up to 50x—Asian retail investors, European hedge funds, and highly leveraged whales compete in the same open market, and any mispricing can be quickly corrected through arbitrage. Following the Cerebras debacle, Bloomberg began citing Hyperliquid's crude oil contract prices as the "most valuable benchmark," bringing on-chain pricing capabilities into the mainstream financial media's spotlight. Cerebras was the first case, but an even greater test is on the horizon. SpaceX, soon to be listed on Nasdaq, targets a valuation of $1.75 trillion and aims to raise $75 billion—if successful, it will surpass Saudi Aramco's record-breaking $29.4 billion IPO in 2019, becoming the largest stock offering in human history. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase are leading the underwriting. SpaceX's pre-market contracts on Trade.xyz are already online, and on-chain transactions have pushed its market capitalization above $2 trillion. Macro analyst Citrini, upon seeing this figure, wrote: "Given how accurately the market valued Cerebras, Musk will undoubtedly become the world's first trillionaire.""This time, the conclusion is not yet finalized. But the market logic is already subtly shifting: institutional investors and macro traders are starting to use the Trade.xyz price as a benchmark before SpaceX's opening, just as they did with Cerebras previously. The pricing door, once only open to institutions, is being gradually pried open by the on-chain market. When the scale reaches a certain point, a sense of threat emerges. According to DefiLlama data, Hyperliquid's perpetual contract trading volume exceeded $171.9 billion in the past 30 days, historically accounting for over 75% of the entire on-chain perpetual contract market at its peak. The world's two major traditional derivatives market infrastructures—CME Group and the New York Stock Exchange's parent company, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)—are starting to get restless. In May of this year, the two institutions pushed US regulators to strengthen their scrutiny of Hyperliquid, citing potential market manipulation risks and possible sanctions circumvention issues. A deeper concern is: similar to Hyperliquid…" The continued expansion of on-chain platforms in the absence of a unified regulatory framework could impact the existing derivatives market structure and pose cross-border compliance challenges. When a competitor begins to face regulatory pressure from giants, it often means that it has threatened the latter's core interests. Faced with this pressure from traditional finance, Hyperliquid did not react passively but was well-prepared. As early as February of this year, the Hyper Foundation allocated approximately $29 million to the independent non-profit Hyperliquid Policy Center, specifically for policy research and regulatory lobbying, led by former Blockchain Association policy head Jake Chervinsky. In May, the same week that CME and ICE formally exerted pressure, Hyperliquid co-founder and CEO Jeff Yan traveled to Washington to meet face-to-face with members of Congress. The talks focused on the CLARITY Act and the crypto regulatory framework, with the core objective of promoting the compliant implementation of on-chain derivatives trading markets in the United States. The exchange had two aspects: firstly, a technical introduction involving Hyperliquid. The policy center focused on two main points: first, the on-chain transaction architecture, global user needs, and its positioning as a financial innovation infrastructure; second, it provided a "first principles" explanation of DeFi and on-chain markets to help policymakers understand the relevant mechanisms and potential impacts. Jeff Yan later stated that he felt the "prudent but open" regulatory attitude of both parties in the US towards the crypto industry and believed that now was the policy window to push on-chain derivatives into the US regulatory system. The Policy Center also publicly responded to the accusations from the two exchanges: Hyperliquid's entire transaction record is on-chain and traceable, with transparency far exceeding any traditional financial venue. This transparency was precisely the core motivation for Jeff Yan to leave traditional finance and build on-chain markets.In his view, the problem with the traditional financial system has never been efficiency—it's that trust relies on intermediaries, the flow of funds depends on the judgment of a few, and ordinary people can never see the whole picture. Blockchain offers a possibility for the first time: replacing trust with code, making all accounts public on the chain, and allowing anyone to verify them in real time. The battlefield of this game has extended from the trading interface to Capitol Hill. In the past, IPO pricing was a game played in a closed room—price books, roadshows, institutional channels—ordinary people were always waiting outside for the market to open. Cerebras's 3% versus 208% victory proved for the first time with numbers that the door was not unopenable. SpaceX is about to ring the bell. A larger window of verification has opened. *This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky; invest with caution. [Conflux]

RichSilo Exclusive Analysis:

Hyperliquid’s Disruptive Edge: How On-Chain Markets Are Redefining IPO Pricing

The impending SpaceX IPO, potentially the largest in history at $1.75 trillion valuation, has inadvertently spotlighted a fundamental disruption in financial market infrastructure: Hyperliquid’s on-chain derivatives platform has demonstrated superior price discovery capabilities compared to traditional pre-market mechanisms, challenging Wall Street’s century-old dominance.

Market Impact: A Paradigm Shift in Price Discovery

The Cerebras case study is nothing short of remarkable. While traditional pre-market platforms like Forge Global and Hiive missed the mark with 208% and 56% pricing deviations, Hyperliquid’s on-chain perpetual contract achieved just 3% error. This isn’t merely a technical triumph—it’s a fundamental challenge to the value proposition of traditional financial infrastructure.

What makes this particularly compelling is the structural advantage. Hyperliquid’s Trade.xyz operates as a continuous, 24/7 marketplace with real-time price updates every 3 seconds, accommodating a diverse global participant base—from Asian retail traders to European hedge funds. This stands in stark contrast to traditional pre-market platforms, which function as one-directional “mirrors” with infrequent updates and restrictive access thresholds.

For the crypto market, this validation of on-chain price discovery mechanisms could catalyze significant capital flows into derivatives platforms. We’re likely to see:

  1. Hyperliquid (HYPE) Token Appreciation: As the platform’s utility and reputation grow, demand for HYPE should increase. The token’s role in governance and staking within the ecosystem positions it to capture value from the platform’s expanding market share.

  2. Institutional DeFi Adoption: The success case of Cerebras could attract traditional finance players seeking more efficient markets, potentially bringing institutional capital into DeFi protocols with proven price discovery capabilities.

  3. Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs): This development accelerates the tokenization of traditional assets, creating new opportunities for platforms specializing in RWAs and expanding the overall addressable market for crypto infrastructure.

Competitive Landscape: The New Battleground

Hyperliquid’s dominance in the on-chain derivatives space is undeniable, with over 75% market share at its peak and $171.9 billion in monthly trading volume. However, this success has triggered a predictable response from traditional financial incumbents.

The recent push by CME Group and ICE for increased regulatory scrutiny of Hyperliquid is a classic defensive maneuver. When established players begin lobbying for regulation against a disruptive competitor, it typically signals that the threat has reached a critical threshold. This regulatory pressure, while concerning, also validates Hyperliquid’s strategic importance in the evolving financial landscape.

Competitors in the on-chain derivatives space should take note. Hyperliquid’s success stems from its hybrid approach—embracing traditional financial mechanisms while leveraging blockchain’s inherent advantages. Those protocols attempting to compete by purely replicating existing crypto-native models may struggle to capture the same market opportunity.

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Risks: Regulatory and Structural Challenges

Despite the promising outlook, significant risks remain:

  1. Regulatory Headwinds: The coordinated pressure from traditional financial giants could result in restrictive regulations limiting on-chain derivatives operations, particularly in key markets like the US. Hyperliquid’s proactive policy engagement with $29 million allocated to its Policy Center is a positive step, but regulatory battles are often protracted and uncertain.

  2. Market Manipulation: As these platforms attract more capital, they become increasingly vulnerable to sophisticated manipulation attempts. The transparency offered by blockchain helps, but doesn’t eliminate this risk entirely.

  3. Oracle Dependency: The accuracy of on-chain price discovery remains fundamentally tied to oracle reliability. Any compromise in oracle integrity could undermine the entire value proposition.

  4. Counterparty Risk: While designed to reduce traditional counterparty risk, on-chain derivatives introduce new potential failure points in smart contracts and clearing mechanisms.

Opportunities: Beyond Price Discovery

The implications of Hyperliquid’s success extend far beyond IPO pricing:

  1. Global Financial Inclusion: For investors in emerging markets or regions with limited access to traditional financial infrastructure, on-chain platforms represent unprecedented access to global markets and efficient pricing mechanisms.

  2. New Product Development: The demonstrated demand for tokenized pre-IPO assets will spur innovation in related product offerings, creating new investment opportunities across the DeFi ecosystem.

  3. Data Analytics Value: The vast, continuous trading data generated by these platforms creates opportunities for sophisticated analytics firms and algorithmic trading strategies.

  4. Regulatory Clarity Precedent: Hyperliquid’s engagement with policymakers could establish a template for other protocols seeking regulatory clarity, potentially accelerating broader DeFi adoption.

Professional Assessment: The Convergence Accelerates

What we’re witnessing is not merely a technological competition but a fundamental reimagining of financial market infrastructure. Hyperliquid’s success demonstrates that blockchain’s greatest value may not be in creating entirely new financial systems, but in improving upon the core functions of traditional finance.

The SpaceX IPO represents the ultimate stress test. If Hyperliquid again demonstrates superior price discovery for what could be the largest IPO in history, it would significantly strengthen the argument for on-chain markets as legitimate financial infrastructure. This could accelerate the institutional adoption curve and potentially reshape how IPOs are structured and accessed in the future.

For experienced crypto investors, this represents a critical inflection point. The convergence of traditional finance and decentralized finance is accelerating, and platforms like Hyperliquid are emerging as the primary beneficiaries. While regulatory risks remain significant, the potential upside—both in terms of token value and broader ecosystem impact—appears compelling.

The market is increasingly recognizing that blockchain’s most transformative application may be its ability to deliver the core promise of financial markets—efficient price discovery—with greater transparency, accessibility, and continuous operation than traditional infrastructure can provide.

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