Geopolitical Tensions Drive Crypto Markets (2026-05-24)

A whale opened a 25x leverage long position on GOLD, with a current position value of $12.60M.

On May 24, according to OnchainLens monitoring, a whale opened a 25x-leveraged LONG position in GOLD, with the current position value at $12.6 million.

The whale also holds a 20x-leveraged SHORT position in crude oil, currently generating an unrealized profit of over $324,000.

[PANews]

Michael Saylor: Repurchased bonds this week, did not buy Bitcoin

Strategy founder Michael Saylor tweeted that he repurchased bonds this week and did not buy Bitcoin.

[Foresight News]

White House: Iranian peace agreement may take several days to reach

According to the AXIOS website, a senior U.S. official stated at a briefing that the White House does not expect the war agreement with Iran to be concluded by Sunday, believing it may take several days for Iranian leadership—including the Supreme Leader—to approve the deal. U.S. officials are optimistic that the agreement will be signed within days but acknowledge it has not yet been finalized and could still fall apart.

The agreement would avert an escalation of war and ease pressure on global oil supplies; however, it remains unclear whether a lasting peace agreement can be reached or whether Trump’s nuclear requirements will be met. On Sunday, Trump posted on social media that he had told “the representatives not to rush into an agreement” and that “both sides must take the time to get things right.”

[Odaily]

Analysis: Bitcoin Collateralized Lending May Enter a Trillion-Dollar Market, with a Huge Gap Between Potential Demand and Actual Adoption Rate

The latest report from the crypto lending platform Ledn indicates that the global Bitcoin-collateralized consumer lending market could grow nearly 300-fold over the next decade, reaching $1 trillion, while a significant amount of latent demand remains untapped.

Citing a survey conducted by consumer research firm Protocol Theory among 1,244 cryptocurrency holders in the U.S. and Australia, the report reveals that approximately 88% of respondents expressed willingness to consider using crypto-asset-backed loans or credit products; however, only 14% are currently using such services—creating what is termed a “6:1 interest-to-adoption gap.”

Ledn estimates the current global Bitcoin-collateralized consumer lending market size at roughly $3 billion. In comparison, Galaxy Research previously estimated the total crypto lending market peaked at $73.6 billion in Q3 2025. Mauricio Di Bartolomeo, Co-Founder of Ledn, stated: “The demand-side problem has been solved—the industry’s true missing piece today is trust infrastructure that instills confidence in borrowers.”

The survey found that the core barriers preventing user adoption of crypto-collateralized lending are not lack of awareness, but rather concerns about price volatility, forced liquidation risks, and regulatory uncertainty. When selecting a lending platform, users prioritize platform reputation, custody security, transparency, and risk management over interest rates alone. The report notes that crypto-collateralized lending is fundamentally analogous to traditional finance products such as “stock margin financing” or “home equity loans,” enabling users to access liquidity without selling their long-held assets.

[Odaily]

Analysis: BTC’s weekend rebound was boosted by the U.S.-Iran situation, with $78,500 becoming a key pivot point for options bulls and bears.

On May 24, according to an analysis posted by Greeks.live on X, Bitcoin’s weekend rebound was driven by U.S.-Iran news. This weekend’s BTC options key points: Gamma constraints weaken post-expiry, and the $78,500 level—the maximum pain point—remains the critical battleground between bulls and bears.

In the short term, if BTC holds above the $77,000–$78,000 range, it is highly likely to continue trading sideways with a bullish bias; if it breaks above $80,000 on strong volume, the call side may reignite momentum-driven buying.

Short-term Implied Volatility (IV) remains low. Given the strong expectation of recent range-bound trading, call spreads or put spreads are more suitable for cost control.

[PANews]

Iranian President: Iran is ready at any time to declare to the world that it does not seek nuclear weapons.

On May 24th, according to CCTV News, Iranian President Pezeshkian mentioned the possibility of future negotiations with the United States in an interview with the Iranian National News Agency. Pezeshkian stated that Iran is ready to declare to the world at any time that it does not seek nuclear weapons, nor does it seek to create regional turmoil.

In the interview, Pezeshkian criticized Israel, calling it a destabilizing force in the region that provokes wars and conflicts in various ways. Pezeshkian said that the Iranian government and Iran’s negotiating delegation will never compromise on issues involving national honor and dignity.

[PANews]

National Data Administration: Accelerate the formulation of technical standards for the national integrated computing power network

PANews, May 24: According to CCTV News, the National Data Administration stated that China is accelerating research and formulation of technical standards for a national integrated computing power network.

Relevant guiding technical documents have reached 12, covering multiple areas including computing power monitoring and scheduling, coordinated operation of computing and electricity, and security protection, thereby promoting the optimal allocation of computing power resources nationwide.

[PANews]

Several CFTC officials who raised concerns about the compliance of prediction markets have been removed from their positions.

According to The New York Times, several officials from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had expressed concerns about Polymarket, Crypto.com, and an affiliate of Gemini—all three of which were alleged to have business ties to the Trump family. Yet despite these concerns, then-CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham and her advisors cleared regulatory hurdles for these companies.

The New York Times reported that by the end of 2025, two officials who had raised questions were suspended and subjected to internal investigations. Additionally, three other officials responsible for enforcing cryptocurrency regulation faced the same fate.

The report stated, “Current and former agency staff told reporters in interviews that commission staff received a clear message: ‘Don’t cause trouble for these industries.’”

[Foresight News]

Hong Kong and U.S. stock markets will be closed on Monday; gold, silver, and oil trading will end early.

Due to the Memorial Day holiday, the US stock market will be closed on Monday, May 25th for one day. Trading of precious metals and US oil futures contracts under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on the 26th, and trading of US stock and US Treasury futures contracts will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 26th.

Due to the Buddha’s Birthday holiday, the Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day on May 25th, and Southbound and Northbound trading will be closed. The South Korean stock market will be closed for one day on the same day.

In addition, due to the Spring Bank Holiday, the UK stock market will be closed for one day on May 25th. Trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts under the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 26th. Please pay attention to this, investors.

[PANews]

U.S. officials: Iran’s Supreme Leader has approved the overall framework of the agreement.

On May 24, Axios cited a U.S. official as saying that the Supreme Leader of Iran has approved the general framework of the agreement.

[PANews]

US Republicans Expedite ARMA Bill, Plan to Build National-Level Bitcoin Reserve

PANews reported on May 24 that Republican lawmakers in the United States are accelerating the promotion of the new version of the “ARMA Act” legislation, striving to complete the signing during the Republican control of both houses of Congress.

The core of the bill is to establish a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, and plans to hold about 5% of the global circulating supply of Bitcoin in the long term. If the bill is finally passed, the U.S. government will become one of the largest BTC holding entities in the world, further consolidating Bitcoin’s narrative position as “digital gold” and sovereign reserve asset.

[Bitcoin News]

Analysis: AI Will Accelerate the Threat of Quantum Computing, Crypto Industry May Enter an Era of Continuous Security Arms Race

Multiple blockchain and post-quantum cryptography researchers have warned that artificial intelligence (AI) is accelerating the development of quantum computing and could prematurely compromise the security frameworks of mainstream blockchains, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Alex Pruden, CEO of Project Eleven—a company focused on quantum-resistant infrastructure—stated that the convergence of AI and quantum computing is fundamentally reshaping the future security landscape: “People will no longer be able to rely on existing security assumptions as they did in the past.”

Researchers noted that AI has already been applied to optimize quantum error correction—a critical technological bottleneck in quantum computing development. Illia Polosukhin added that AI has long accelerated scientific breakthroughs, and a self-reinforcing “circular acceleration effect” may soon emerge—where “AI helps build the next generation of quantum computers.”

One of the industry’s top current concerns is the “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” strategy: governments or sophisticated attackers are already collecting encrypted data at scale today, intending to decrypt it en masse once quantum computing matures. Polosukhin warned that if quantum computers mature within several years, “most of today’s critical internet data could be decrypted in the future.”

Since most current blockchain networks and internet infrastructure widely use Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC), a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could—in theory—derive private keys directly from public keys, thereby compromising wallets and on-chain systems outright. Meanwhile, AI itself is also enhancing hackers’ capabilities. Pruden noted that AI models are becoming increasingly adept at identifying software vulnerabilities and cryptographic implementation flaws—and may even directly break certain encryption algorithms in the future.

However, developers are also leveraging AI for code auditing, formal verification, and testing post-quantum secure systems—sparking a “long-term security arms race” where both offensive and defensive capabilities evolve in tandem. Researchers believe the most profound change brought by the combined forces of AI and quantum computing is the erosion of digital era’s foundational assumption that “encryption is long-term reliable.” Future security architectures may therefore shift from “static upgrades” to continuous, dynamic evolution.

[CoinDesk]

Analysis: Crypto is becoming the default payment layer for AI Agents, highlighting the advantages of stablecoins.

Keyrock, a crypto market-making and investment firm, reported that blockchain-based stablecoin payment rails are gradually becoming the default payment layer for AI Agents, as traditional card payment systems struggle to meet the demands of microtransactions.

The report states that between May 2025 and April 2026, AI Agents have completed over 176 million transactions via on-chain infrastructure, with a total settlement value exceeding $73 million.

“Agentic Payments” refers to autonomous payments made by AI software—such as purchasing data, compute, APIs, or AI services—without requiring manual, per-transaction authorization. For example, an AI trading agent can continuously and automatically purchase market data, cloud computing resources, or AI analytics services. Keyrock believes this growth rate may even surpass the early explosive phase of stablecoins.

Currently, Coinbase’s x402 protocol has emerged as one of the leading crypto-native machine-to-machine payment solutions, enabling AI Agents to pay directly in USDC for on-chain analytics, cloud services, and other resources—without needing accounts or subscription systems.

Data shows that approximately 76% of AI Agent payments fall below the typical $0.30 fixed fee threshold common in traditional card networks; most transactions range from $0.01 to $0.10, rendering conventional payment networks unsuitable for machine-to-machine microtransactions. In contrast, stablecoin settlement costs on chains such as Base and Tempo are “under one cent.”

However, regulation could still constrain industry growth. The report notes that emerging regulatory frameworks—including Europe’s MiCA, the U.S. GENIUS Act, and the EU AI Act—have yet to directly address critical issues such as AI Agent autonomy in trading, liability attribution, and identity verification.

[CoinDesk]

CITIC Securities: Expectations for the U.S.-Iran agreement are rising, and the economy is expected to rebound in June.

May 24th news, according to Jinshi reports, CITIC Securities believes that the US and Iran are increasingly close to reaching an agreement, and the market has basically priced this as a benchmark scenario. The biggest change after the agreement is reached is the simultaneous replenishment of supply and demand and the rapid warming of economic activity. Some current economic indicators are obviously weak, reflecting the postponement of demand before the US-Iran agreement and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Micro entities are waiting rather than rushing to replenish inventory and start construction, which is an abnormal disturbance.

As the agreement is reached and the Strait resumes navigation, supply and demand will return to their positions, and economic activity will improve significantly after June. Changes in macro variables will also change the environmental assumptions of market strategies, and styles will gradually become balanced.

The reduction of holdings by large funds is coming to an end. After the macro situation stabilizes, allocation-oriented funds will gradually return, promoting the repair of some undervalued sectors. In terms of allocation, continue to actively reduce volatility and reconstruct the barbell structure of AI + energy.

[PANews]

Senior US official: Refuses to levy any transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, agreement will not be signed today.

On May 24, according to JINSHI citing Fox News, a senior U.S. government official stated that Iran has made serious and unprecedented concessions regarding uranium enrichment. The agreement with Iran will not be signed today, but we are making progress toward that goal. If Tehran makes concessions on uranium enrichment, we will consider easing sanctions; our plan includes addressing Iran’s entire stockpile of enriched material.

The United States rejects imposing any transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz—a proposal that is unacceptable to us. If Iran continues uranium enrichment under the final agreement, it would not constitute a final agreement.

Additionally, according to U.S. officials cited by CBS (CBS News), Iran currently appears more willing to make concessions than it was before the military operation.

[PANews]

Planet Daily

1. The next round of U.S.-Iran talks may be held on June 5;

2. Trump reiterated that he will not agree to any final deal unless Iran’s nuclear program is completely dismantled;

3. Iranian media disclosed a potential Memorandum of Understanding (MoU): time-bound negotiations, lifting of oil sanctions, and a ceasefire in Lebanon;

4. Iranian sources: the relevant MoU is still pending final approval by Ayatollah Khamenei;

5. Disagreements persist over two or three clauses in the U.S.-Iran MoU;

6. Evmos, the Cosmos ecosystem’s EVM-compatible network, has been shut down; its block explorer and official website are inaccessible;

7. Bankr developers: plan to launch the Bankr Fund to invest in ecosystem projects;

8. Loracle’s 5x-leveraged HYPE short position is currently showing unrealized losses exceeding $31.4 million;

9. AI-sector funding in Q1 exceeded RMB 110 billion, with financing for domestic large language models surging dramatically;

10. CryptoQuant analyst: Bitcoin has entered a risk-aversion phase, and ETF demand momentum is far below last year’s peak.

Trump: Has notified representatives not to rush into an agreement

U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have instructed my representatives not to rush into an agreement because time is on our side.

The (maritime) blockade will continue to be fully effective until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed. Both sides must take their time and not make any mistakes.

[Golden Ten]

Analysis: The Bitcoin long/short watershed remains near the $78,500 maximum pain point.

According to Greeks.live analysis, the Bitcoin weekend rebound was driven by news from the US and Iran. The core of this weekend’s BTC options: Gamma constraints weakened after delivery, and the $78,500.00 maximum pain point is still the watershed between Bitcoin bulls and bears.

In the short term, if BTC holds $77,000.00-$78,000.00, it is likely to continue to fluctuate and remain strong; if it breaks through $80,000.00 with volume, the Call side may reignite the FOMO sentiment.

Short-term IV is still low. Considering the strong expectation of recent fluctuations, it is more suitable to use Call Spread / Put Spread to control costs.

[Odaily]

Report: Bitcoin collateralized lending harbors a “trillion-dollar blue ocean”; nearly 90% of Bitcoin holders express willingness to borrow but have not yet entered the market.

PANews reported on May 24 that a new report from crypto lending platform Ledn shows that the global Bitcoin-backed lending market may soar from approximately $3.00 billion currently to $1.00 trillion in the next decade, becoming a huge potential market in the crypto industry that has not yet been fully released.

The report cited a survey by research institution Protocol Theory of 1,244 crypto asset holders in the United States and Australia, saying that approximately 88% of respondents said they would be willing to use crypto assets to secure loans or credit products, but currently only 14% are actual users. Ledn summarizes this phenomenon as a “6:1 interest and adoption fault line.”

The analysis believes that this means that although a large number of coin holders want to obtain liquidity by “HODL-ing coins without selling them,” the industry’s trust infrastructure is still far from mature.

[CoinDesk]

Report: Cryptocurrencies Are Becoming the Default Payment Layer for AI Agents, with 98.6% of Transactions Settled in USDC

Keyrock’s latest report shows that crypto rails are gradually becoming the default payment layer for AI Agents. In the past year, AI Agents have completed over 176.00 million transactions through blockchain, with a settlement amount exceeding $73.00 million.

As AI Agents begin to autonomously purchase data, cloud computing power, API services, and AI inference resources, traditional bank card payment systems are finding it difficult to adapt to high-frequency, ultra-small payment scenarios. Currently, approximately 76% of Agent payments are less than $0.30, while some on-chain stablecoin transfer costs are only “a fraction of a cent.”

Coinbase, Stripe, Google, and Visa have all begun to lay out machine-to-machine payment infrastructure. Among them, the x402 protocol launched by Coinbase allows AI Agents to directly use USDC to pay for on-chain analysis and cloud service fees. Data shows that currently 98.6% of AI Agent payments are settled through USDC.

The report believes that this further strengthens Circle’s important position in the crypto payment field, but it also means that the industry’s reliance on a single stablecoin issuer is increasing.

[ChainCatcher]