Original Author: Jocy, IOSG Ventures

The debtor freezes to death on the road, the blood seller dies of thirst on the way. The silk weaver is dressed in coarse cloth, the farmer cannot eat his fill.

Today, after meeting with an OG, these four sentences came to mind, echoing the sentiments of many practitioners still active in the Web3 front line. I reposted a tweet I wrote over a year ago as a whistleblower to the industry, and while the outcome was predicted correctly, it is not the outcome any practitioner wants. No one ever thought this would happen. But it is happening. No one is willing to speak out. So I will dare to speak out.

Prologue

This week in Shanghai, I attended MuShanghai organized by Sun at Hongqiao. A month-long event covering 4 main themes—biotech, AI, culture, robotics. Over 2000 people globally signed up, with over 800 people finally selected to attend, from Stanford entrepreneurs to former OpenAI engineers, YC, HF0, and Frontier Tower’s Jacob.

Sun and Sunny along with a team of twenty volunteers did something in China that perhaps only they could do—clearing visas, international networks, government relations, to create a truly meaningful global gateway. Just this alone deserves applause from every individual in the industry. This is the most successful team to transition from the crypto community to a diverse community. But after a few rounds, my feelings are complex. Nearly half of the attendees at the event have a crypto background.

They now carry new labels: biotech founder, AI agent builder, robotics entrepreneur, cultural curator. Some are truly exploring the next journey, while others are dignifiedly preparing to leave crypto. This is a great self-rescue mission that people in this industry are embarking on—in a way I have never seen before.

Main Content

1/ In the past two years, I have been more pessimistic than ever, but also more unwilling to give up than ever

Lately, I have met many people and heard many things. The problem in this industry is no longer just about the bear market; it is about the entire ecosystem’s feedback loop being broken. I have organized these scattered observations, conversations, and reflections. It’s not a complaint, but a hope that more people will come together to bear this responsibility.

2/ The Era of “Black Swan Events” at Scale

I’ve been recently studying probability theory. Us old folks are used to understanding the market in cycles—we had an alt season in the last cycle, and we’ll have one in this cycle too. But this year, all the originally underestimated black swan events are happening simultaneously: China’s Web3 major developers, 50–60% flowing to AI.

People who leave are unlikely to come back. Thousands of projects raised hundreds of billions of dollars, but only a few truly standout applications. Wall Street, Trump, and sovereign wealth funds taking away Bitcoin, the position of native builders is becoming increasingly limited. The US fund-raising development is booming, while the Asian ecosystem is facing a survival crisis. Entrepreneurs bleeding to list on exchanges, investors exiting. It’s not that the cycle hasn’t come, it’s that the script for this generation’s cycle is completely different from the past.

3/ About Ethereum: I’m Not Pessimistic, but I’m Worried

Ethereum’s reform has reached a critical juncture. The best time windows in the past—the 21-year bull market, the 22-year turning point—were supposed to be the best times to drive application innovation, create super apps, where the industry’s greatest attention, most money, and top talent were all concentrated. However, the focus at that time was placed on ZK, L2, and other technical narratives.

The technical direction itself is not wrong; what’s wrong is that at the time when mass-market products should have appeared, all resources were piled into niche directions. Now, in the bear market, trying to launch a super app is ten times harder than those two years. Ethereum’s price weakness is essentially the weakness of the entire Web3. Because Ethereum carries the most capital, talent, and attention in the industry. Whether it can rise again is crucial for the future of millions of practitioners.

4/ Vitalik Might Be Living in a Massive Information Bubble

A strong feeling I recently had is that most people around Vitalik dare not directly tell him how difficult the industry is and where Ethereum’s real challenges lie. The number of rent-seeking interest groups is increasing, and closed circles and culture are becoming more severe. When new directions and opportunities emerge, they often extend along the ties of the original circle. The regular community and ordinary practitioners find it difficult to have the opportunity to have normal communication with Vitalik and provide feedback.

Community dissatisfaction and complaints are filtered out layer by layer and kept out. This is not the fault of any individual. After an organization rapidly expands to over 200 people, the feedback mechanism has not kept up. But the price of boiling a frog slowly will ultimately fall on everyone still building in this ecosystem.

5/ Lack of Recognition from Peers, Society, and Next Generation

This is the most significant dilemma faced by practitioners of this generation, spanning geographies: in China, the industry is seen as a gray area, often associated with MLM schemes; in Hong Kong, due to a series of exchange exit scams, practitioners are automatically labeled as scammers; in Singapore, crypto is considered a non-mainstream industry; in the U.S., compared to AI entrepreneurs, crypto practitioners have almost no social recognition.

I’ve heard practitioners say that their high school kids are unwilling to learn about wallet private keys, thinking that what their father does is not respectable. Many founders, as parents, are afraid to mention what they do at school parent-teacher meetings. The next generation simply does not see this as a worthwhile career to pursue. When an industry can’t even say “I work in it,” the issue of succession planning is no longer abstract but urgent.

6/ Succession Planning Challenge Is Emerging

Most of Ethereum’s first-generation core developers have started families and had children. This is a natural stage of life where they can’t code for ten hours a day like they could a decade ago. But where is the next generation? We’ve tried universities’ graduate and doctoral students, engineers from Web2 giants, and geeks from the early community.

However, in such a thriving era of AI, what do we have to retain them? Bitmain and ByteDance recruited fresh graduates at the same time with similar salaries – ten years later, the equity return differed by tens of millions.

As this young generation watches the outcome of the previous one, why would they choose crypto over AI? And we not only have to retain the next generation but also directly compete with AI for talent. Projects like Solana, Ethereum, AI labs, and robotics companies are fishing in the same talent pool.

The compensation packages offered by frontline crypto projects are already hardly competitive. Successors will not emerge on their own. It requires systematic cultivation: crypto schools, research grants, developer funds, long-term mentorship mechanisms. Paradigm, a16z, AllianceDAO, ResearchHub are working on this. The Chinese community must also contribute.

7/ A Small Expectation for Vitalik

I would like to express this in an encouraging manner because criticism is pointless. Vitalik is the most influential entrepreneur in this industry. He is not just the chief scientist; he is a beacon for the industry’s direction. During Ethereum’s most critical transition period, he needs to return to the front lines of entrepreneurship.

He is not the same person as he was in 2014, but rather someone who, after years of reflection, has returned to the original intention of entrepreneurship.

A bear market is the best time to build the next generation of products. He needs to reassemble core developers, the community, and the younger generation to move forward together into the next decade. He must have people around him who can tell him the truth directly.

8/ The Fork between China and the U.S.: Ecosystem’s Hematopoietic Capacity

Last year, I wrote about “You Can Turn Everything into a Meme, but Cherish This Cathedral” and compared these two paths. Today, I must reiterate: the fundraising environment for Chinese entrepreneurial teams is extremely harsh. 90% of Asia-focused funds are in dire straits. This means that the Asia Web3 ecosystem lacks hematopoietic capacity.

Once the top few funds can’t hold on, the entire ecosystem will collapse. The difference in choices between Chinese and U.S. OGs after receiving the industry’s first bucket of gold is particularly striking today. Most American OGs are still building—Rune, Hayden, Juan, this group of people are continuously reinvesting wealth back into the ecosystem.

Most Chinese OGs, after making money, choose to cash out and exit, with some turning to invest in AI, and fewer are engaged in true next-generation development. This is not a moral accusation. I hope that Chinese OGs, after benefiting from the industry, can turn around to help the new generation of young people. Establishing a complete ecosystem and forming a positive feedback loop is the only way for this industry to survive.

9/ How Practitioners Can Survive

Most Web3 companies and institutions will continue to lay off over 30% of their staff in the upcoming AI wave and bearish market, so survival is more important than anything. After discussing systemic issues, let’s return to the individual. I am also in this predicament, so I want to share a few points. Find rationale. Why are you still here? Not for the token price, not for KOL traffic.

It’s because you believe in this, because you have benefited from this industry in the past, because your team and investors need you. Once you have a clear “why,” the rest will follow. Keep your work and life fulfilling. The industry’s low pressure will seep into your daily emotions.

Don’t let the token price define your self-worth. Read more, meet friends offline, spend more time with your family, do things unrelated to the market. These are the most important lessons of a bear market.

In the face of difficulties, don’t let disappointment ferment into abandonment. The current community sentiment is not “crisis mode,” it’s “disappointment.” The difference between these two words is—crisis mode implies a desire to change, while disappointment implies a desire to give up. Strive to keep yourself in the former.

Learn new things. I myself am also learning AI. This week, I saw many crypto practitioners at MuShanghai adopting new labels to explore biotech, AI, robotics, and I was actually moved. When our abilities are up to par, we can make choices; when our abilities fall short, we can only be chosen.

Web3 is still IOSG’s most important business, and we will not give up. Of course, this does not stop me from using AI to arm and enhance our workflow and strengthen our arsenal. Find your own small alliances and circles of confidence. Deep alliances with 5 to 6 historically validated, stylistically mature friends/institutions.

Education, funding, talent networks—fill in the gaps. Self-rescue is more important than waiting for a savior. Learn to reconcile with yourself. This is something I am still practicing myself. This market does not reward those who do the right thing; it rewards a bunch of scammers, it rewards a bunch of speculators. That fact is true.

But the significance of what you are doing should not be determined by the market price. Allow yourself to fail in a bear market, allow yourself to feel low, allow yourself to do some “seemingly unproductive” things. This is not giving up; it’s charging up for the next journey.

10/ We Need More Lighthouses

What the industry lacks most is not money, not technology, but lighthouses. It’s not just Vitalik who needs to be a lighthouse. Every person who is still here, still believes in this, can be a lighthouse—give thirty minutes to a confused young founder, give a grant to a team with a bottomed-out runway, give a referral to a laid-off engineer, write a sincere reflection rather than a glamorous narrative.

Each beam of light doesn’t shine far. But when added together, it’s the reason those who are still advancing in the darkness don’t give up. People like Sun are doing this. People like Lao Hu quietly provide monthly financial support for those exploring non-mainstream ideas. Everyone is doing what they can.

11/ A Message to Everyone Reading This

If you are an OG: If the industry has given to you, please look back and give to the next generation. It’s not a multimillion-dollar gesture, it’s a mailing list, a referral, a direct payment to a market-making fund manager, a grant to an entrepreneur in distress.

What the younger generation needs is to believe that “building is still worth it.” If you are a founder: don’t fight alone. Tell the true situation to trusted individuals.

If you are a builder/researcher: keep building. Not the kind of building powered by love, but the kind where you turn your labor into rightful rewards. Let the next generation believe that this endeavor still holds true professional significance.

12/ Conclusion

For everyone who sees this content, please forward it to an OG you know. Let them go light up others. Don’t forget the blessings this industry has bestowed upon them. Appeal to more OGs and industry leaders to reclaim a sense of responsibility, speak up for the industry, fund more entrepreneurs, and give the next generation the opportunity to continue building Web3—not just through labor of love.

Whether the casino devours the cathedral is not solely Vitalik’s concern, nor is it the responsibility of just the EF as an organization. It is the collective responsibility of each one of us who is still here.

Many people ask me how they can endure this cycle, all the pressure pushing them to exit, often one step away from giving up. Many young individuals need an old OG to tell them how to survive a bear market. But I know that if our generation does not step up, then the next generation will not even have the option to “step up.”

[BlockBeats]