Mankiw Research | VISA Increases Stablecoin Settlement, the Certainty of Crypto Payments is Getting Stronger

Web3 is no longer “sexy,” but crypto payments are increasingly becoming a solid business. This article discusses global trends in crypto payments and stablecoin settlements, with primary focus on overseas payment institutions (e.g., Visa), overseas stablecoin payment infrastructure, and relevant international regulatory frameworks.

Terms referenced herein—including “crypto payments,” “stablecoin receipts and payments,” and “U-cards”—are not targeted at the Chinese mainland market and do not constitute recommendations for residents of the Chinese mainland to engage in virtual asset trading, payments, investments, or related activities. The Chinese mainland has clear regulatory requirements governing virtual asset–related businesses; relevant institutions and individuals must strictly comply with current laws, regulations, and regulatory policies.

Visa has recently added fresh momentum to the crypto payments industry. On April 29, 2026, Visa announced an expansion of its global stablecoin settlement pilot, adding five new blockchain networks—bringing the total number of supported blockchains to nine. Concurrently, Visa disclosed that the annualized stablecoin settlement volume under this pilot has reached $7.0 billion—up 50% from the prior quarter.

If you read this news only as “Visa is now doing stablecoins,” you’re missing the depth. Visa didn’t just start experimenting with stablecoin payments now—it began piloting early on, integrating USDC, card issuers, acquirers, and on-chain settlement. As reported by Reuters in January this year, Visa is embedding stablecoins into its existing payment systems and has already launched a U.S. pilot allowing select banks to settle with Visa using USDC; at that time, the disclosed annualized stablecoin settlement volume stood at approximately $4.5 billion.

So what’s truly noteworthy this time isn’t Visa “suddenly embracing stablecoins”—it’s that Visa is doubling down, and its investment isn’t aimed at flashy front-end gimmicks, but rather at the foundational settlement layer of the payment network. This signals that crypto payments are evolving—from a Web3-native product narrative into an infrastructure priority for traditional payment giants. In today’s market—where many Web3 narratives have lost their luster—this shift deserves serious attention from founders and investors alike.

The newly supported blockchains in Visa’s latest expansion include Arc, Base, Canton, Polygon, and Tempo—joining the previously supported Avalanche, Ethereum, Solana, and Stellar, forming a nine-chain stablecoin settlement pilot network. The message is unmistakable: Visa isn’t betting on any single chain, nor conducting a one-off experiment—it’s building a multi-chain settlement network.

More critically, Visa’s emphasized use case this time isn’t “users spending stablecoins,” but issuer/acquirer settlement: i.e., settlement arrangements between card issuers, acquirers, and the Visa network. If stablecoins remain confined within exchanges, they function merely as liquidity tools for the crypto-asset market. But once stablecoins enter the settlement layer of payment networks, they begin transforming into financial infrastructure. That’s precisely the most significant aspect of Visa’s latest move.

A clear shift is underway across the Web3 industry: many stories are losing their narrative appeal. Public blockchains are overly saturated; DeFi feels stale; NFTs are cooling off; GameFi remains abstract; and AI + Crypto often devolves into conceptual patchwork. Payments, however, are different—payments represent actual capital flows. A cross-border trading firm needs to collect payments from overseas clients; a Web3 company must pay salaries globally; an exchange requires local deposit/withdrawal rails; an RWA project must handle investor subscriptions and redemptions; a wallet must connect users’ stablecoin balances to real-world consumption. These are daily, tangible business needs.

That’s why crypto payments deserve even greater attention today. They may not be the most “sexy” trend—but they sit closest to money. They may not lend themselves easily to grand storytelling—but they’re among the easiest paths to generating revenue. As long as you can move money faster, cheaper, more reliably, and more accessibly, there’s inherent commercial value. High cross-border payment costs, slow settlement times, lengthy banking chains, weekend/holiday uncertainties, account freezes, and inadequate financial infrastructure in emerging markets—all persist. Stablecoins aren’t a panacea, but they do offer a new pathway for value transfer.

Crypto payments are worth pursuing—not because they’re novel, but because they’re practical. At least three compelling reasons justify continued investment in this space. First, demand is authentically real: regardless of bull or bear markets, enterprises must collect payments, make disbursements, and settle obligations. Second, stablecoins have already formed a de facto on-chain USD network—USDT, USDC, and similar assets long ago transcended their role as mere exchange pricing tools. Third, the entry of industry giants won’t eliminate startup opportunities—in fact, it will mature the market.

The future of the crypto payments industry will likely follow a multi-layered structure—not a winner-takes-all model. The base layer comprises stablecoin issuers, blockchains, and clearing networks; the middle layer includes licensed payment institutions, card issuers, acquirers, and liquidity providers; and the top layer consists of wallets, merchants, enterprise customers, vertical-specific use cases, and user-facing entry points. Startups need not build at the deepest foundational layer—but they can go deep in a specific region, for a particular customer segment, or within a focused use case.

Crypto payments is not a sector where “guerrilla tactics” can sustain long-term viability. The reason is simple: it touches money. And once money is involved, regulation inevitably follows. Even under the same label—“stablecoin payments”—different operational models trigger vastly different regulatory classifications: some may qualify solely as technical services, while others could constitute virtual asset services, money transmission, foreign exchange, merchant acquiring—or even fall under stored-value payment instruments, electronic money, or payment institution regimes.

Thus, increased certainty in crypto payments does not imply lowered barriers to entry. Quite the opposite: the more certain the sector becomes, the more rigorously regulators act; the more seriously giants invest, the harder it becomes for unregulated “guerrilla” players to survive. If you’re genuinely considering entering this space, don’t fixate solely on products or connectivity channels—first clarify your business model: Are you building a wallet? Enabling currency exchange? Providing remittance services? Acting as an acquirer or issuer? Operating a clearing system? Offering custody? Or delivering technical infrastructure?

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RichSilo Exclusive Analysis:

Visa’s Stablecoin Expansion: Infrastructure Over Narrative in Crypto Payments

Visa’s recent expansion of its global stablecoin settlement pilot represents a watershed moment for the crypto industry, signaling a fundamental shift from speculative narratives to practical infrastructure adoption. By adding five new blockchain networks (Arc, Base, Canton, Polygon, and Tempo) to its existing stablecoin settlement framework, Visa has effectively created a multi-chain settlement network that now processes annualized volumes of $7 billion—a 50% increase from the previous quarter. This development demands serious attention from investors as it indicates traditional financial institutions are moving beyond experimentation to build foundational crypto infrastructure.

Market Impact: From Speculation to Utility

The most significant aspect of Visa’s strategy is its focus on the issuer/acquirer settlement layer rather than retail-facing crypto spending. This represents a critical maturation of the crypto market, where value is increasingly derived from practical utility rather than speculative hype. Visa’s multi-chain approach also demonstrates a strategic recognition that no single blockchain can adequately handle the complex requirements of global payments, effectively validating the multi-chain future of blockchain infrastructure.

The immediate market impact is likely to be most pronounced for:
Stablecoins: USDC and other regulated stablecoins will likely see increased adoption as settlement assets
Layer 2 solutions: Base, Polygon, and other scaling solutions may benefit from increased transaction volume
Enterprise-focused blockchains: Networks with institutional partnerships and compliance features may gain preferential treatment

Token Price Implications

For investors, Visa’s expansion creates nuanced opportunities and risks across different token categories:

Stablecoins: The increased institutional adoption of stablecoins for settlement will likely reinforce their role as fundamental infrastructure, potentially leading to modest but steady growth in market capitalization as institutional on-ramps improve. However, regulatory clarity remains the primary catalyst for significant appreciation.

Payment Infrastructure Tokens: Blockchain networks providing settlement infrastructure (particularly those integrated with Visa’s network) may experience sustained interest. However, we must temper enthusiasm with the understanding that traditional payment giants will likely extract most economic value from these relationships.

Enterprise-Ready Platforms: Blockchains with compliance features, institutional custody solutions, and proven track records for reliability will likely outperform more experimental networks in this institutional-focused environment.

Risks and Regulatory Challenges

The increasing institutional adoption of crypto payments does not equate to reduced risk. In fact, as the article correctly notes, the more seriously industry players invest in crypto payments, the more rigorously regulators will scrutinize the sector. Key risks include:

  1. Regulatory Fragmentation: Different jurisdictions will likely impose varying requirements for stablecoin issuers, payment processors, and settlement networks, creating compliance complexity for cross-border operations.

  2. Concentration Risk: As traditional payment giants like Visa establish dominant positions in crypto settlement, they may capture disproportionate value while leaving limited economic opportunities for blockchain-native projects.

  3. Market Saturation: The payments market is notoriously low-margin and competitive. While crypto payments offer efficiency advantages, the entry of established players with existing customer relationships and economies of scale may squeeze margins for smaller crypto-native payment providers.

  4. Stablecoin Contagion: As stablecoins become more integrated with traditional financial infrastructure, stability concerns could have broader systemic implications.

Strategic Opportunities

Despite these risks, Visa’s expansion creates several compelling investment opportunities:

  1. Specialized Payment Providers: Startups focusing on specific verticals (e.g., cross-border remittances, B2B payments, payroll services) can carve out defensible niches without competing directly with Visa at the foundational layer.

  2. Regional Compliance Experts: As regulatory frameworks evolve globally, firms providing specialized compliance services for crypto payments in specific jurisdictions will be in high demand.

  3. Liquidity Infrastructure: Providers of institutional-grade stablecoin liquidity, particularly for multi-chain settlement networks, will play a critical role in enabling seamless payment processing.

  4. Vertical-Specific Wallets: Wallet solutions tailored to specific use cases (e.g., international trade, supply chain finance, freelance payments) will likely outperform generic wallet providers.

  5. Emerging Market Solutions: In regions with inadequate traditional financial infrastructure, crypto payments can offer transformative value, creating opportunities for regionally focused solutions.

The Multi-Layered Future

The future of crypto payments will likely follow a multi-layered structure as envisioned in the article. This presents a more nuanced investment landscape than the winner-takes-all scenarios common in other tech sectors. The base layer (blockchains, stablecoin issuers, clearing networks) will be dominated by established players, but opportunities remain in the middle and top layers for specialized providers.

For investors, the key takeaway is that crypto payments are no longer a speculative play but a maturing infrastructure market. The “sexy” narratives of Web3 may have lost their luster, but payments represent the closest bridge between crypto and real-world value flows. As Visa’s expansion demonstrates, this is where institutional capital is increasingly flowing—and where patient, strategically-focused investors will find sustainable returns.

Conclusion

Visa’s expansion of its stablecoin settlement network represents a validation of crypto payments as foundational infrastructure rather than speculative technology. For investors, this signals a shift from high-risk, high-reward opportunities to more sustainable, albeit potentially lower-return, infrastructure investments. The most promising opportunities will likely be found in specialized niches within the multi-layered payments ecosystem, particularly where regulatory compliance and vertical-specific expertise create defensible moats. As the crypto market matures, the ability to move money faster, cheaper, and more reliably will increasingly determine success—making practical payment infrastructure one of the most promising sectors for institutional-grade returns in the coming years.

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