Macro Outlook for Next Week: The Risk of Renewed Conflict Between the US, Israel, and Iran Rises Sharply, and Gold is on the Verge of a Turning Point
May 16 news: Over the past week, U.S. inflation data surged across the board, driven by soaring energy prices amid the Iran war, with multiple key indicators hitting multi-year highs.
Traders have now largely priced out the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, while bets on a rate hike within the year have intensified. Next week, the minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting will be closely watched for signs that signals pointing toward a rate hike are beginning to strengthen.
Additionally, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation remains a shadow hanging over global markets.
[PANews]
Iran: Ready to manage the Strait of Hormuz mechanism; related details to be announced soon
On May 16, according to JINSHI News, the head of Iran’s Parliament National Security Committee announced that Iran has prepared a mechanism to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz along designated routes, with relevant details to be released soon.
During this process, only commercial vessels and parties cooperating with Iran will benefit from it. Necessary fees will be charged to cover the professional services provided under this mechanism.
The channel will remain closed to operators of the “Freedom Plan.”
[PANews]
Iran: Mechanism for managing the Strait of Hormuz is ready, details to be announced soon
The head of Iran’s Parliament National Security Committee stated that Iran has prepared a mechanism to manage traffic in the Strait of Hormuz along designated routes, and related details will be announced soon.
During this process, only commercial vessels and parties cooperating with Iran will benefit. Necessary fees will be charged to cover the professional services provided under this mechanism.
The channel will remain closed to operators of the “Freedom Plan.”
[Jin10]
THORChain: RUNE transfers are expected to resume in 12 hours, attack may be due to GG20 TSS vulnerability
PANews May 16th, THORChain posted an update on the hacker attack on the X platform. Preliminary evidence suggests that a node that recently joined the network was suspected of being controlled by a malicious operator, who obtained vault participant key information through the GG20 TSS vulnerability, and ultimately reconstructed the vault private key and executed unauthorized withdrawal transactions.
Currently, multiple THORChain nodes have been shut down, so the network is in a paused state. It is expected that RUNE transfers can be resumed in about 12 hours, but the specific situation depends on the node’s decision. Functions such as transactions, liquidity provider operations, and signatures are still unavailable, and a full recovery of network functions is expected to take several days.
Recovery plans are under discussion, which may include reducing the staking of affected nodes, as well as other remedies proposed by the community.
[PANews]
Bitget Launches Phase 3 of the VIP Guardian Program with a Total Prize Pool of 50,000 USDT
Bitget has launched the third phase of its VIP Protection Program, with participation ending on June 5 at 18:00 (UTC+8). The total prize pool is $50,000 USDT. This phase targets a specific group of users: those whose VIP level dropped after November 15, 2025, and who have not yet reached VIP1 as of May 6, 2026.
The campaign comprises three main components: Derivatives VIP, Spot VIP, and Asset VIP reinstatement. Eligible users, after completing registration, may choose any one of these three tracks to participate. Users who complete the required trading volume and net deposit tasks will receive corresponding USDT rewards—up to $500 USDT per user. Rewards are distributed on a first-come, first-served basis. For more details, please refer to the official Bitget platform.
[Odaily]
Loracle.hl’s 5x HYPE short position returns to profit, with total profit rising to $41.43 million.
As the price of HYPE falls, the 5x leverage HYPE short position previously established by Loracle.hl (Loracle.xyz) has returned to profitability.
Its 5x leverage CRBS short position currently has a floating profit of over $1.76M, and total profit has rebounded to $41.43M.
[Odaily]
Datavault AI Discloses Signing of Over $800.00 Million Tokenized Contracts and Advances AI and RWA Infrastructure Expansion
May 16th news, Nasdaq-listed Datavault AI announced its Q1 2026 business update, which disclosed that the company has signed tokenization contracts worth over $800.00M, of which approximately $100.00M in fees are expected to be recognized in 2026, achieving a new contract scale of approximately $75.00M in the first quarter, further verifying the institutional demand for RWA (Real World Assets) tokenization platforms.
In terms of assets and financing, the company strengthened its balance sheet through a $60.00M private placement and an additional $120.00M in non-dilutive financing, and promoted the expansion of the SanQtum AI infrastructure platform in the United States.
In addition, the company plans to expand its quantum-safe GPU edge network and deploy approximately 48,000.00 GPUs by the end of 2026.
[PANews]
Yi Lihua: Going ALL IN on AI is the only option, and it is recommended that 50% of future income be allocated to the AI field.
Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua posted on X: “This rally has essentially ended. I’ve repeatedly stated that this round is a rally, not a reversal, and the strategy is to close long positions on the way up. Possible upcoming headwinds include: (1) a normal correction in U.S. equities from elevated levels; (2) oil prices impacting inflation concerns, thereby altering rate-cut expectations; and critically, (3) a notable rebound in U.S. Treasury yields.”
“The long-term outlook for crypto remains bright—it’s the darkness before dawn. Every bear market brings countless pessimists and exits, yet deep bear markets often present excellent entry points and opportunities for patience.”
“In the AI era, two groups stand to benefit most: first, those bold enough to go all-in on AI stocks; second, AI entrepreneurs. I recommend allocating 50% of future returns to the AI sector—it’s an irreversible trend, and ALL IN AI is the only choice.”
[ChainCatcher]
Grayscale: US inflation is accelerating, and the market expects the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates before September 2027.
Grayscale posted on the X platform that its research team believes that US inflation is accelerating, the Federal Reserve is in a policy dilemma, and the market expects no interest rate cuts before September 2027.
The institution pointed out that this situation has three effects on the crypto field: first, devaluation transactions face resistance; second, tokenized fixed income products will accelerate their development; and third, stablecoin issuer reserve income will increase.
[Odaily]
THORChain: Network Suspended Due to Security Incident, Suspected Single Malicious Node Exploiting GG20 TSS Vulnerability to Steal Funds
THORChain posted on the X platform that its developers have released an event update on Discord. Current evidence points to a newly added node to the network, thor16uc…cn84q, being related to the attack, and that the node is operated by a single malicious actor.
The main speculation is that the attacker exploited a vulnerability in the GG20 TSS implementation, causing sensitive key material of vault participants to leak over time, eventually reconstructing the vault private key and executing unauthorized withdrawal transactions.
Regarding network status, the network has been paused after multiple node operators executed make pause. RUNE transfers and on-chain observations are expected to resume within approximately 12 hours, but transactions, LP operations, signatures, and other sensitive operations remain paused.
Recovery plan discussions include penalizing the affected node’s bond, covering losses from protocol-owned liquidity (POL), or other community-driven solutions. THORSec and Outrider Analytics are continuing their investigation, and the Treasury is collecting forensic data and coordinating with relevant law enforcement agencies. Full functionality recovery is expected to take several days or longer.
[Odaily]
Yi Lihua: The rebound has essentially ended; we are now in the darkest hour before dawn.
Li Quan Capital founder Yi Lihua posted, “This rally has essentially ended. I have repeatedly stated that this round is a rebound rather than a reversal, and the strategy is to close long positions on the way up. Potential headwinds ahead include: a normal correction in U.S. equities from elevated levels; oil prices impacting inflation concerns, thereby altering rate-cut expectations; and, most importantly, a notable rebound in U.S. Treasury yields.”
“The long-term outlook for crypto remains bright—it’s the darkness before dawn. Every bear market brings waves of pessimism and exits, yet deep bear markets often present excellent entry points and opportunities for patience. I recommend allocating 50% of future returns to the AI sector, an irreversible trend.”
[Foresight News]
[Source]: US and Israel may resume military operations against Iran as early as next week
According to U.S. sources, the Pentagon is preparing to resume military operations against Iran, and the U.S. and Israel may resume military strikes against Iran as early as next week. U.S. sources indicate that negotiations have reached an impasse.
Reports show that multiple U.S. officials revealed that, if the U.S. decides to resume military strikes against Iran, one option would be to conduct more intense bombing raids on Iranian military and infrastructure targets; another option would be to deploy special operations forces on the ground to seize Iranian nuclear materials. Hundreds of special operations personnel arrived in the Middle East in March. However, U.S. officials acknowledged that this option carries significant risks.
Additionally, since the ceasefire began in early April, the U.S. has re-armed warships and aircraft stationed in the region. (CCTV News)
[Odaily]
A smart money investor who bought ETH in 2016 and profited $30.38 million re-entered the ETH market one year later.
On May 16, according to on-chain analyst Ai Aunt’s monitoring, a “smart money” address that previously accumulated 11,004 ETH at an average price of $3.45 in 2016—and realized a profit of $30.38 million—has re-entered the ETH market after one year.
One hour ago, this address purchased 647.137 ETH on-chain at an average price of $2,211.49, worth $1.43 million. It currently still holds $14.19 million in available USDC.
[PANews]
“Brother Maji” re-enters a long position on ETH, with a position value of $2.79 million
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Machi’s (@machibigbrother) 25x long ETH position and 40x long BTC position have been fully liquidated. The BTC position was closed at a profit, while the ETH position was closed at a loss.
After the liquidation, this address reopened a 25x long ETH position of 1,275 ETH, with a position value of $2.79 million.
[Odaily]
THORChain: No Refunds, Airdrops, or Compensation Programs Have Been Initiated; Reminding the Community to Beware of Fraud
THORChain officially warned the community that a large number of fake accounts and false information have been discovered in the market, involving so-called activities such as refunds, airdrops, and compensation.
Preliminary investigations indicate that users’ funds were not compromised in the previous security incident. At present, THORChain is not running any refund, airdrop, or compensation programs. Any accounts claiming otherwise are impersonators or spreading false information. Updates on the investigation and further details will be announced later.
[Foresight News]
Musk Says He Will Not Sell Any SpaceX Shares
Elon Musk stated that he will not sell any shares of SpaceX. There are reports that the company may publicly file its long-awaited IPO application documents as early as next week.
Musk wrote on the X platform in response to a user’s post: “I won’t sell a single share.” The user had suggested that he sell shares after the lock-up period ended.
According to people familiar with the matter, the company, which is engaged in rockets, satellites, and artificial intelligence businesses, may publicly file its IPO application as early as Wednesday. The company had previously secretly submitted documents, planning to raise as much as $75.00B, with a valuation of over $2.00T, which would be the largest IPO in history.
[Odaily]
Today’s Market Pulse
Rising geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel and Iran are overshadowing markets, as inflation surges and the Fed’s rate-cut expectations shift dramatically, creating a risk-off environment that’s pressuring crypto assets.
Key Themes
Geopolitical Risk & Monetary Policy Shift
Escalating Middle East tensions could trigger military action as early as next week, while inflation data has accelerated to multi-year highs. The market has now fully priced out Fed rate cuts for 2026 and expects none until September 2027. This policy dilemma creates headwinds for risk assets, with Treasury yields rebounding as the primary concern. The Strait of Hormuz situation adds another layer of uncertainty, with Iran preparing a traffic management mechanism that could further disrupt global energy markets.
Crypto Security Vulnerabilities Exposed
THORChain remains paused after a sophisticated attack exploited a GG20 TSS vulnerability, allowing a single malicious node to reconstruct vault private keys. While transfers may resume in 12 hours, full functionality recovery could take days. The incident has triggered fake compensation schemes, highlighting how security breaches create secondary risks. This vulnerability in threshold signature schemes could have implications for other multi-party computation protocols in the DeFi ecosystem.
Institutional Rotation Toward AI
Despite market uncertainty, smart capital continues to allocate strategically. A 2016 ETH accumulator has re-entered the market, while Yi Lihua declares “ALL IN AI” is the only choice, recommending 50% of future returns go to the AI sector. Datavault AI has signed over $800M in tokenization contracts, reinforcing institutional demand for RWA infrastructure. This rotation away from pure crypto plays toward AI and tokenized real-world assets represents a significant shift in institutional focus.
RichSilo Verdict
Smart money should monitor the Fed meeting minutes for any strengthened rate hike signals, track THORChain’s recovery for insights into DeFi security protocols, and watch for how institutional flows rotate between crypto, AI, and RWA tokenization. The current geopolitical tensions and monetary policy uncertainty create a volatile environment, but the institutional focus on AI infrastructure and real-world asset tokenization suggests these sectors may outperform despite broader market headwinds.
