Polymarket’s April trading volume declined 8.9% month-on-month, while competitors such as Kalshi gained market share.
The prediction market platform Polymarket saw a month-over-month decline in trading volume in April, down approximately 8.9% from March, marking the first monthly decline since August of last year.
According to Dune Analytics data, Polymarket and its U.S. application had a total trading volume of over $10.2B in April, down from $11.2B in March. Meanwhile, competitor Kalshi saw a significant increase of 13% in trading volume in April, reaching approximately $14.8B.
Despite Polymarket’s declining share, the total trading volume of the entire prediction market still increased from $26.5B in March to $29.8B in April, a month-over-month increase of 12.4%.
[Cointelegraph]
DeFi Development had a net loss of $83.40 million in the first quarter, but SOL holdings per share increased by 108.00% in 1 year.
On May 14, news reported that Solana Treasury company DeFi Development Corp stated that, despite an expanded loss in Q1, its SOL holdings per share grew by 108% over the past year—from 0.0322 to 0.0670. As of May 13, the company held approximately 2.2946 million SOL and equivalents.
CEO Joseph Onorati said the company achieved growth through strategies including internal staking, operating a joint validator node with Bonk, and deploying over 25% of its treasury on-chain—and emphasized that Strategy’s strategy is a starting point, not a ceiling.
The company’s Q1 revenue was $2.66 million, up 827% year-on-year; however, its net loss was $83.4 million, compared to $778,000 in the same period last year, primarily due to the decline in SOL’s price.
[PANews]
Antalpha deposited 651.65 XAUT to Bybit, worth $3.05 million.
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Antalpha deposited 651.65 XAUT into Bybit, worth 3 million USD.
[Odaily Planet Daily]
The probability of “Variational’s FDV exceeding $500 million within one day of its launch” on predict.fun is 51.8%.
According to official data, the probability of the market betting on “Variational’s FDV exceeding $500.00M within the next day of launch” on the prediction market platform predict.fun is 51.8%.
The probability of exceeding $800.00M is 24%, and the probability of exceeding $1.00B is 18.2%. The current trading volume in this market is $9.70M.
[Foresight News]
BNB Chain Launches On-Chain Proxy Identity and Payment Framework Based on ERC-8004 Standard
On May 14, The Defiant reported that BNB Chain has announced the launch of a comprehensive on-chain agent framework. This framework enables autonomous agents to obtain decentralized identities through the ERC-8004 standard and conduct peer-to-peer payments.
Furthermore, agents can use ERC-8183 to delegate tasks to other agents and accumulate verifiable reputation records on 8004scan. The system operates entirely on-chain, featuring transparent, auditable transactions and hierarchical agent relationships.
[PANews]
Only 4% of US Voters Care About Crypto at the Ballot Box, New Poll Finds
A new poll shows just 4% of Americans would weigh a candidate’s crypto stance at the ballot box. This ranks the issue at the bottom of voter concerns ahead of the 2026 midterms.
The result undermines the industry’s central pitch, which casts everyday digital asset investors as a powerful voting bloc. That premise has helped justify hundreds of millions in political spending across the 2026 cycle.
The POLITICO Poll, conducted with Public First, found that even among 19% of Americans who have traded digital assets, only 7% say a candidate’s crypto stance would sway their vote.
The survey highlighted that 18% of respondents want lawmakers to prioritize cryptocurrency rules. That trails housing affordability at 49% and consumer fraud protection at 36%.
Public support for legitimizing crypto as a mainstream financial asset sits at 27%. By contrast, 31% oppose government action, and 42% remain neutral or undecided. An earlier survey found 45% of Americans consider crypto investing not worth the risk.
These findings suggest crypto remains a low-priority issue for most voters despite the industry’s growing political influence. They also reflect lingering public skepticism toward digital assets as a mainstream investment class.
Bank of Japan policy board member Masayoshi Shigemizu stated that interest rate hikes should be implemented as soon as possible.
Bank of Japan board member Adachi Hajime called for raising interest rates as soon as possible if there are no signs that the economy is in trouble; he pointed out that inflation risks are showing more persistent characteristics due to the Iranian war.
“If the statistics do not show clear signs of an economic downturn, I think it is advisable to raise interest rates as soon as possible,” Adachi said. He said that although rising fuel prices caused by the Middle East conflict may only be temporary, there is also a risk that this will accelerate Japan’s “already rising” logistics costs.
“There are concerns that these factors may not be temporary shocks, but represent a more persistent trend, with the risk of pushing up prices,” Adachi said.
[Golden Ten Data]
Antalpha deposited 651.65 XAUT to Bybit, worth approximately $3.05M
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Antalpha has deposited 651.65 XAUT into Bybit, with a value of approximately 3.05 million USD.
[Foresight News]
Bitget has added popular stock contracts such as Vertiv (VRT) and Eaton (ETN), with leverage of up to 20x.
According to the official announcement, Bitget stock contracts are now available for three underlying assets: INFQ (Infleqtion Quantum Technologies), VRT (Vertiv), and ETN (Eaton), covering popular sectors such as cutting-edge quantum technology, AI-powered power infrastructure, and cooling infrastructure.
These contracts support up to 20x leverage. For more details, please visit the official Bitget platform.
[Odaily]
An a16z-related wallet bought another 50,000 HYPE 8 hours ago, with a cumulative floating loss of over $6.00 million.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, the wallet 0xb5E4 associated with a16z bought another 50,168 HYPE 8 hours ago, worth approximately 1.97 million USD.
Over the past month, the address has cumulatively purchased 1.64 million HYPE, with a total value of approximately 69.43 million USD. Currently, the book floating loss has exceeded 6 million USD.
[Odaily Planet Daily]
Moody’s: US banks expect digital financial transformation to be “slow at first, then fast”
On May 14, Moody’s Ratings released a report following discussions with major U.S. banks and financial market intermediaries, stating that most institutions believe the digital finance transformation will follow a “slow-then-fast” trajectory, with tokenization scaling gradually to benefit more market participants, assets, and use cases.
Moody’s noted that current tokenization activities are primarily concentrated in cryptocurrency trading, cross-border retail payments, and certain institutional use cases; however, nearly all major banks have already established digital asset teams or innovation departments and are actively participating in industry pilots.
[Cointelegraph]
Bitcoin spot ETFs had a total net outflow of $635.00 million yesterday, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the way with a net outflow of $285.00 million.
According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $635 million yesterday (May 13, U.S. Eastern Time).
The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest single-day net outflow yesterday was BlackRock’s ETF IBIT, which saw a net outflow of $285 million. IBIT’s cumulative net inflow to date stands at $65.773 billion.
Next was Ark Invest and 21Shares’ ETF ARKB, which recorded a single-day net outflow of $177 million; ARKB’s cumulative net inflow to date stands at $1.451 billion.
As of press time, the total net asset value (NAV) of Bitcoin spot ETFs stood at $105.01 billion, with the ETF net asset ratio (i.e., ETF market cap as a percentage of Bitcoin’s total market cap) reaching 6.58%; cumulative net inflows to date have reached $58.499 billion.
[Odaily]
Helius Launches Jupiter Skill and Integrates it into its Claude Code Plugin
Solana infrastructure provider Helius announced on X that Jupiter Skill has been integrated into the Helius Claude Code plugin.
Developers can directly invoke Jupiter’s Swap, limit orders, DCA, and prediction market APIs via Claude Code, and combine them with Helius’s RPC, LaserStream, and Sender to rapidly build high-performance applications—from trading terminals to prediction markets.
[Foresight News]
US CFTC Issues No-Action Letter Regarding Event Contract Data Reporting
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s Division of Market Oversight and Division of Clearing and Risk issued a no-action letter stating that it will not recommend enforcement action for designated contract markets, derivatives clearing organizations, and their participants that fail to comply with swap-related recordkeeping requirements, and for failing to report data related to fully collateralized event contract transactions to swap data repositories.
The relevant departments plan to simplify the approval process and ensure that market participants are treated equally. All beneficiaries of previous no-action letters regarding similar contract data reporting continue to be applicable, and entities wishing to list or clear similar contracts may apply for the same no-action position, and if approved, will be added to the no-action letter appendix.
[Odaily]
Today’s Market Pulse
The crypto market is experiencing a mixed sentiment with institutional outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, prediction market platform competition, and continued integration efforts between traditional finance and digital assets.
Key Themes
1. Prediction Market Competition & Evolution
Polymarket‘s trading volume declined 8.9% month-on-month while competitor Kalshi gained 13% market share, indicating a shifting landscape in prediction markets. This competitive pressure may accelerate innovation in the sector, which saw overall growth of 12.4% to $29.8B. Meanwhile, predict.fun is betting on new token launches with 51.8% probability that Variational’s FDV will exceed $500 million within a day of launch, reflecting market optimism for new tokenomics models.
2. Traditional Finance-Digital Asset Convergence
BNB Chain‘s launch of an on-chain proxy identity and payment framework based on ERC-8004 represents significant progress toward institutional-grade infrastructure. Simultaneously, Bitget‘s addition of stock contracts with 20x leverage bridges traditional equities and crypto derivatives. Moody’s report confirms banks expect digital finance transformation to follow a “slow-then-fast” trajectory, with tokenization gradually scaling beyond current cryptocurrency trading and payment use cases.
3. ETF Outflows & Political Reality Check
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $635M in net outflows yesterday, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for the largest portion at $285M. This institutional retreat coincides with a sobering political reality: only 4% of US voters prioritize crypto issues at the ballot box, and even among crypto traders, just 7% would let a candidate’s crypto stance sway their vote. This data challenges the industry’s political influence narrative and suggests a need for broader adoption beyond the current user base.
4. Infrastructure Development Despite Market Volatility
Despite market turbulence, significant infrastructure development continues. Solana provider Helius integrated Jupiter Skill into its Claude Code plugin, enhancing developer capabilities. Meanwhile, DeFi Development Corp expanded its SOL holdings by 108% despite Q1 losses, demonstrating conviction in the network’s long-term prospects. However, a16z’s continued buying of HYPE with $6M in floating losses highlights the speculative nature of certain token investments.
RichSilo Verdict
Smart money should monitor the Bitcoin ETF outflow trend for signs of institutional sentiment shift, while tracking prediction market competition as an indicator of retail engagement. The “slow-then-fast” digital finance trajectory suggests patience may be rewarded as traditional finance integration progresses. Key risks include regulatory headwinds given the limited voter priority for crypto issues, and potential policy shifts from the Bank of Japan if interest rates rise sooner than expected. The evolving infrastructure developments, particularly around on-chain identity and cross-chain functionality, represent the most promising medium-term catalysts for broader market adoption.
