Not long ago, Mysten Labs CEO evan.sui talked about his views on the “bear market.” He mentioned that he does not agree with the so-called “bear market is good, continue to Build” argument. In fact, the bear market is not “great.” Packaging it as good for everyone will ignore the real cost. Many retail investors and excellent teams will face cash flow disruptions and have to withdraw, which will ultimately harm the long-term development of the crypto industry.

However, the evidence in the data does not agree with this view. A report released by Lattice VC in October 2024 showed that at that time, more than 80% of crypto startups that announced seed round financing in the 2022 bear market were still building. In other words, if the project team can ensure relatively stable personnel and funds, then the bear market is indeed more conducive to project construction and development. As for the reason, perhaps the project team in the bear market is more focused on product development and experience optimization; or perhaps the bear market can train the project team’s ability to survive. In short, being in a crypto bear market, project teams determined to start a business may be able to turn adversity into opportunity and find their own path of development.

In view of this, we will discuss potential employment tracks and project directions in this cycle with readers through the series of articles “Crypto Bear Market Entrepreneurship Guide.” If crypto projects are really born and even grow rapidly as a result, Odaily星球日报 also welcomes project teams to discuss cooperation. Today, let’s first talk about the hottest potential entrepreneurial direction besides the prediction market – the coin-stock pre-market spread market.

As an intermediate bridge connecting the crypto market and the traditional financial market, coin-stock trading platforms have not only received high attention and active participation from crypto project teams, but also global leading securities platforms including Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange have also been involved in order to seize the incremental market and further activate the liquidity of the traditional financial market. In addition, not only have the listed cryptocurrency concept stocks ushered in stock tokenization and on-chain contract transformation, but also many popular concept stocks that have not yet undergone IPO have been sought after by the crypto market and the traditional financial market, thus spawning many pre-market stock tokenization trading platforms.

Considering that the capital market will usher in a wave of US stock listings of a series of AI model companies, commercial space companies, prediction market platforms and crypto exchanges including OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX (xAI), Kalshi, Polymarket, OKX, and Kraken this year, there is no doubt that 2026 is destined to be an “IPO year.” Against the backdrop of the crypto market falling and rebounding occasionally, and the stock market rising steadily, the popularity of the pre-market stock trading market further confirms the above view – the crypto market and the traditional financial market have a strong demand for pre-market trading of popular concept stocks. And this is the main reason why pre-market stock trading platforms including PreStocks, Jarsy, and Tessera have emerged.

In addition, compared with the pre-market stock trading markets in the traditional financial market such as Hiive and Nasdaq Private Market, the trading methods, purchase quotas, and entry barriers of the crypto pre-market trading market are more flexible, and the premium is relatively higher, so many users are enthusiastically participating. However, just as the same token on different exchanges will have different degrees of price difference, before a similar oracle mechanism is introduced in the pre-market stock market, no matter what the reason, we can clearly see that the different platforms in the above text have certain price differences for the pricing of the same underlying stock.

Based on the above information, we can make a slightly bold judgment – the crypto market still lacks one or more “bridge platforms between pre-market stock trading markets.” This may be the only way to further promote stock tokenization and pre-market stock tokenization – a unified comprehensive platform covering pre-market trading in the traditional financial market and pre-market trading in the crypto market. Below, we will take Kalshi and Polymarket, the two leading prediction market platforms that recently sought $20.00B in financing, and SpaceX (xAI), which is valued at $1.25T, as examples to explore the feasibility and real demand of this “entrepreneurial direction.”

Taking the Kalshi pre-market trading market as an example, the prices on different platforms are as follows: On the PreStocks platform, the pre-market price of stock tokens is about $397.00; on the Jarsy platform, the pre-market price is about $545.00. In other words, the price difference of Kalshi’s pre-market stock price on the two major trading platforms is as high as $148.00. If calculated based on the $360.00 price of the traditional financial market pre-market trading platform Hiive, the pre-market price difference is even as high as $185.00.

Taking the Polymarket pre-market trading market as an example, the prices on different platforms are as follows: On the PreStocks platform, the pre-market price of stock tokens is about $186.00; on the Jarsy platform, the pre-market price is about $280.00. In other words, the price difference of Polymarket’s pre-market stock price on the two major platforms is about $94.00, and the price difference rate is about 50.50%.

Taking SpaceX (xAI) as an example, the prices on different platforms are as follows: On the PreStocks platform, the pre-market price of stock tokens is about $666.00; on the Tessera platform, the pre-market price of stock tokens is temporarily reported at about $591.00. In other words, the price difference of SpaceX’s pre-market stock price on the two major platforms is about $75.00, and the price difference rate is about 12.70%.

In summary, based on the existing pre-market trading platforms, it may be possible to build a coin-stock pre-market spread market. After having enough pre-market tokens or pre-market equity capital, it can meet the market’s trading needs and hype needs. Of course, considering that the current market liquidity is still within the million-dollar level, the main business model of this platform may remain in transaction fees or LP fees, as well as the realization of price differences in the platform’s own investment quota.

[Odaily星球日报]