A few weeks ago, an article published by Citrini Research stated that stablecoins would bypass Visa and Mastercard, directly leading to a sharp drop in the stock prices of card organizations. The logic sounds clear: AI agents will optimize every transaction, and handling fees are a kind of “tax” that stablecoins can bypass. Although the crypto space is very optimistic about this, most of this statement is incorrect. The real opportunity lies not in replacing bank cards, but in serving merchants who have difficulty accessing traditional card payments.
Citrini’s argument is based on the assumption that AI agents, freed from human habits, will proactively optimize away card organization fees. But bank cards are not just transfer tools; they provide unsecured credit, pre-authorize uncertain transactions, and protect against fraud through chargeback rights. Stablecoins can transfer money, but they can’t do these things. 82% of Americans hold rewards credit cards, and there are as many as 18 billion cards in circulation worldwide. For the vast majority of transactions, consumers will not voluntarily give up consumer protection and points to choose a payment method that is both benefit-free and irreversible.
Fraud detection is a huge advantage of card organizations. Card networks can run models on billions of transactions in real time, while stablecoins currently do not have a comparable network-level anti-fraud layer. In addition, an agent is essentially just a new device. Mobile phones, watches, and computers all hold independent tokens pointing to the same card, and so do agents. Visa has issued over 16.00 billion tokens, and agents will also use these tokens. Visa’s intelligent business framework is being piloted, Mastercard’s Agent Pay has been launched to cardholders across the United States, and the intelligent agent business protocol jointly built by Stripe and OpenAI has also been connected to Etsy.
The conclusion is clear: for existing merchants and consumers, bank cards are almost destined to dominate agent commerce. The opportunity for stablecoins lies with merchants that have not yet appeared. Every platform migration will spawn a wave of merchants that existing payment systems cannot serve. The AI wave will spawn these types of merchants faster than any previous platform migration. In the past year alone, 36.00 million new developers have joined GitHub.
Imagine: an average developer uses AI tools to spend 4 hours creating a financial data display tool for a listed company, with no website, no terms of service, and no legal entity. When another developer’s agent calls it 40,000 times a week, the core question these developers face is: how do I get paid? For most people, they can’t get paid at the moment. Existing payment institutions have difficulty accessing these types of merchants because once payment institutions pass a merchant, they have to bear the risk. Tools with no website, no entity, and no record are almost impossible to pass risk control audits.
In this gap, stablecoins are currently the only viable solution. Although the wallet experience is rough and the compliance framework is still being formed, protocols like x402 can already embed stablecoin payments directly into HTTP requests: no merchant account, no processor, no onboarding, no chargeback liability. These merchants are not choosing between stablecoins and bank cards, but between stablecoins and not getting paid.
Every wave of new merchants will eventually be absorbed by traditional payment systems, and this time is likely to be the same. But the order is always: merchants appear first, and risk control follows. In the gap between the two periods, stablecoins are the infrastructure: bank cards serve all merchants that payment institutions can underwrite, and stablecoins serve all merchants that payment institutions cannot underwrite. The next wave of commerce will be born in this gap.
[Foresight News]
Stablecoins: Not Disruptors, But Gap-Fillers in the AI Economy
The recent commentary from a16z challenges the prevailing narrative that stablecoins will fundamentally disrupt traditional payment networks like Visa and Mastercard. While this perspective may seem contrarian in an industry often characterized by disruption hype, it offers a more pragmatic and arguably more accurate assessment of stablecoins’ role in the evolving digital economy.
The Limited Case for Disruption
The article correctly identifies that stablecoins face insurmountable barriers in displacing established payment networks. Card organizations provide more than just payment processing – they offer unsecured credit, transaction pre-authorization, and robust fraud detection through chargeback mechanisms. These features are deeply embedded in consumer behavior and are unlikely to be abandoned for a payment method that offers neither consumer protection nor rewards.
Visa’s issuance of over 16 billion tokens and Mastercard’s Agent Pay initiative demonstrate that traditional payment systems are already adapting to AI-driven commerce rather than being displaced by it. The notion that AI agents will “optimize away” card fees overlooks the fundamental value propositions that card networks provide beyond mere transaction facilitation.
The Real Opportunity: Serving the Unbankable of AI Commerce
The more compelling thesis is that stablecoins will serve as critical infrastructure for merchants that existing payment systems cannot or will not service. The AI economy is generating entirely new classes of merchants – developers creating financial tools with no legal entity, website, or terms of service – that fall outside the risk parameters of traditional payment processors.
Consider the example provided: a developer spending four hours creating a financial data display tool that’s called 40,000 times weekly. For these micro-merchants, the choice isn’t between stablecoins and bank cards, but between stablecoins and not getting paid at all. Protocols like x402 that enable stablecoin payments directly within HTTP requests – without requiring merchant accounts, processors, or onboarding – are precisely the innovation needed to unlock this market.
Market Implications and Investment Opportunities
This analysis suggests several strategic implications for investors:
-
Infrastructure Play: Stablecoin protocols that enable seamless integration with AI tools and developer economies represent significant infrastructure opportunities. The x402 protocol mentioned in the article exemplifies the technical innovation needed to capture this market.
-
Regulatory Arbitrage: As traditional payment systems face increasing regulatory scrutiny, stablecoin protocols operating in regulatory gray areas could capture market share among merchants that cannot meet compliance requirements of established networks.
-
Complementary, Not Competitive: Rather than viewing stablecoins as competitors to traditional payment systems, investors should consider them as complementary infrastructure serving different segments of the market.
-
AI-First Payment Solutions: Payment protocols designed specifically for AI agent interactions and micropayments could outperform general-purpose stablecoin solutions in capturing this emerging market.
Risks and Challenges
Despite the promising thesis, significant risks remain:
-
Regulatory Overreach: As stablecoins serve more merchants, they are likely to attract increased regulatory scrutiny that could limit their utility.
-
Traditional Payment System Adaptation: While traditional systems may be slower to adapt, their eventual entry into AI commerce could squeeze stablecoin margins.
-
Technical Hurdles: The “rough wallet experience” mentioned in the article remains a significant barrier to mainstream adoption for both consumers and merchants.
-
Market Volatility: For merchants operating on thin margins, the volatility of even stablecoins (which can occur during redemption or regulatory changes) poses a business risk.
Forward-Looking Perspective
The most compelling aspect of this analysis is its recognition that stablecoins can serve as the foundational layer for the next wave of commerce. As AI generates millions of new developers and merchants, traditional payment systems will inevitably lag in serving them. During this gap, stablecoins can establish themselves as the payment method of choice.
The key question for investors is whether stablecoin protocols can scale to serve this market before traditional payment systems adapt. The answer likely lies in the speed of regulatory clarity and the ability of stablecoin providers to improve user experience while maintaining their advantages in serving high-risk, high-innovation merchants.
In conclusion, stablecoins may not replace Visa or Mastercard, but they could become as essential to the AI economy as credit cards were to the e-commerce boom. The opportunity lies not in disruption, but in enabling commerce where traditional systems cannot.