On January 29, 2026, gold plummeted by 3.00% in a single day, marking its biggest drop in recent times. Just days before, gold had broken through $5,600.00 per ounce to reach a new high, with silver following suit. The year 2026 had barely begun, and it had already far exceeded JPMorgan Chase’s mid-December expectations. [Source: JPMorgan Chase]

In contrast, Bitcoin has remained in a weak, fluctuating range after its correction, and the market performance of traditional precious metals and Bitcoin continues to diverge. Despite being known as “digital gold,” Bitcoin does not seem stable. The more traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver benefit from inflation and war, the more Bitcoin seems like a risk asset, fluctuating with risk appetite. Why is this?

If we cannot understand Bitcoin’s actual role in the current market structure, we cannot make reasonable asset allocation decisions. Therefore, this article attempts to answer the following questions from multiple perspectives:
· Why have precious metals surged recently?
· Why has Bitcoin performed so poorly in the past year?
· Looking back at history, how has Bitcoin performed when gold has risen?
· For ordinary investors, how should they choose in this divided market environment?

I. A Cross-Cycle Game: The Ten-Year Showdown Between Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin

From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin is still one of the highest-returning assets. However, in the past year, Bitcoin’s performance has clearly lagged behind gold and silver. The market trend from 2025 to early 2026 shows a very distinct binary divergence: the precious metals market has entered a phase called a “super cycle,” while Bitcoin appears somewhat sluggish.

Below is a comparison of three key cycles: [Source: TradingView][Source: TradingView]

This divergence in trends is not new. As early as the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, gold and silver rose rapidly due to risk aversion, while Bitcoin once plummeted by more than 30.00% before starting to rebound. In the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin soared 1359.00% while gold only rose 7.00%. In the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin plummeted 63.00% while gold only fell 5.00%. In the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin fell 57.00% while gold rose slightly by 1.00%.

This seems to reveal that the price linkage between Bitcoin and gold is not stable. It is more like an asset at the intersection of traditional finance and new finance, with both technology growth attributes and being affected by the strength of liquidity. It is more difficult to equate it with gold, a safe-haven asset for thousands of years.

Therefore, when we are surprised that “digital gold is not rising, but real gold is exploding,” what we should really be discussing is: Is Bitcoin really regarded as a safe-haven asset by the market? Judging from the current trading structure and the behavior of major funds, the answer may be no.

In the short term (1-2 years), gold and silver do outperform Bitcoin, but in the long term (10 years+), Bitcoin’s return is 65 times that of gold – over a longer period, Bitcoin proves with a return of 213 times that it may not be “digital gold,” but it is the greatest asymmetric investment opportunity of this era.

II. Reason Analysis: Why Have Gold and Silver Risen More Sharply Than BTC in Recent Years?

Behind the frequent new highs of gold and silver and the lagging Bitcoin narrative is not only the divergence of price trends, but also the deep divergence of asset attributes, market perception, and macro logic. We can understand the watershed between “digital gold” and “traditional gold” from the following four perspectives.

2.1 Amid the Crisis of Confidence, Central Banks Take the Lead in Buying Gold

In an era of strong currency devaluation expectations, who continues to pay the bills determines the long-term trend of assets. From 2022 to 2024, central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold on a large scale for three consecutive years, with an average annual net purchase of more than 1,000 tons. Whether it is emerging markets such as China and Poland, or resource countries such as Kazakhstan and Brazil, they all regard gold as a core reserve asset to counter the risk of the dollar.

The key is that the more the price rises, the more central banks buy – this “the more expensive, the more you buy” behavior reflects the central banks’ firm belief in gold as the ultimate reserve asset. Bitcoin is difficult to be recognized by central banks, which is a structural problem: gold is a 5000-year consensus and does not rely on any national credit; while Bitcoin requires electricity, networks, and private keys, and central banks dare not allocate it on a large scale. [Source: World Gold Council, ING Research]

2.2 Gold and Silver Return to “Physical First”

When global geopolitical conflicts continue to escalate and financial sanctions are frequently introduced, asset security will become a question of whether it can be cashed out. After the new US government came to power in 2025, policies such as high tariffs and export restrictions were frequently introduced, disrupting the global market order, and gold naturally became the only ultimate asset that does not rely on the credit of other countries.

At the same time, the value of silver in the industrial field began to be released: the expansion of new energy, AI data centers, photovoltaic manufacturing and other industries has increased the industrial demand for silver, which is backed by a real supply and demand mismatch. In this case, silver speculation and fundamentals resonate, and the increase is naturally more rapid than gold.

2.3 Bitcoin’s Structural Dilemma: From “Safe-Haven Asset” to “Leveraged Technology Stock”

In the past, people believed that Bitcoin was a tool to resist the excessive issuance of currency by central banks, but with the approval of ETFs and the entry of institutions, the capital structure has undergone fundamental changes. Wall Street institutions include Bitcoin in their investment portfolios, usually as a “highly elastic risk asset” – we can see from the data that in the second half of 2025, the correlation between Bitcoin and US technology stocks reached 0.8, which is an unprecedented high correlation, meaning that Bitcoin is becoming more and more like a leveraged technology stock. When there is risk in the market, institutions are more willing to sell Bitcoin for cash first, unlike gold, which is bought. [Source: Bloomberg]

More representative is the flash crash liquidation on October 10, 2025, when $19.00 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in one go. Bitcoin did not show its safe-haven attributes, but instead experienced a collapse-style decline due to its highly leveraged structure.

2.4 Why is Bitcoin Still Falling?

In addition to structural difficulties, there are three deeper reasons for Bitcoin’s recent continued weakness:

1️⃣ The plight of the crypto ecosystem is being robbed of business by AI. The construction of the crypto ecosystem is seriously lagging behind. When the AI track is frantically attracting money, the “innovation” of the crypto circle is still playing Meme. There are no killer applications, no real demand, only speculation.

2️⃣ The shadow of quantum computing. The threat of quantum computing is not groundless. Although real quantum cracking will take many years, this narrative has made some institutions flinch. Google’s Willow chip has demonstrated quantum advantages, and although the Bitcoin community is studying quantum-resistant signature schemes, upgrades require community consensus, which slows down the quantum-resistant process, but also makes the network more robust.

3️⃣ OGs are selling off. Many early Bitcoin holders are leaving. They feel that Bitcoin has “changed its flavor” – from a decentralized idealistic currency to a speculative tool for Wall Street. After the ETF was passed, the spiritual core of Bitcoin seemed to be gone. MicroStrategy, BlackRock, Fidelity… Institutional holdings are getting bigger and bigger, and the price of Bitcoin is no longer determined by retail investors, but by the balance sheets of institutions. This is both a benefit (liquidity) and a curse (loss of original intention).

III. In-Depth Analysis: The Historical Association Between Bitcoin and Gold

By reviewing the historical association between Bitcoin and gold, it can be found that the price correlation between the two in major economic events is quite limited, and the performance often deviates. Therefore, the reason why the saying “digital gold” is repeatedly mentioned may not be because Bitcoin is really like gold, but because the market needs a familiar reference.

First, the linkage between Bitcoin and gold has not been a safe-haven resonance from the beginning. Bitcoin was still in its early stages in the geek circle, and its market value and attention were negligible at that time. In 2013, the banking crisis broke out in Cyprus, and some capital control measures were implemented, but the price of gold fell sharply by about 15.00% from its high; during the same period, Bitcoin soared to more than $1,000.00.

This was interpreted by some as capital flight and safe-haven funds pouring into Bitcoin. However, in hindsight, the Bitcoin frenzy in 2013 was more driven by speculation and early sentiment, and its safe-haven attributes were not widely recognized. That year, gold fell sharply and Bitcoin rose sharply, and the correlation between the two was also very low – the monthly return correlation was only 0.08, almost zero.

Second, the period of true synchronization only occurred during the period of liquidity flooding. After the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, central banks around the world released water on an unprecedented scale, and investors became increasingly worried about the overissuance of fiat currencies and inflation expectations, and both gold and Bitcoin strengthened. In August 2020, the price of gold hit a historical high at that time (breaking through $2,000.00), while Bitcoin broke through $20,000.00 at the end of 2020, and then accelerated to above $60,000.00 in 2021.

Many views believe that during this period, Bitcoin began to reflect the “anti-inflation” digital gold attribute, and benefited from the loose monetary policies of various countries like gold. However, it should be pointed out that the essence is that the loose environment gave the two a common breeding ground for rising, and Bitcoin’s volatility is much higher than that of gold (annualized volatility 72.00% vs 16.00%).

Third, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is unstable in the long term, and the digital gold narrative remains to be verified. It can be seen from the data that the correlation between gold and Bitcoin has been in a state of fluctuation for a long time, and it is not stable as a whole. Especially after 2020, although the prices of the two sometimes rise simultaneously, the correlation has not been significantly enhanced, but often shows a negative correlation. This shows that Bitcoin has not stably played the role of “digital gold”, and its trend is more driven by independent market logic. [Source: Newhedge]

Through the review, it can be seen that gold is a safe-haven asset that has been repeatedly verified by history, and Bitcoin is more like an unconventional hedging tool that is only established under a specific narrative. When the crisis really comes, the market will still give priority to certainty rather than imagination.

IV. The Essence of Bitcoin: Not Digital Gold, But Digital Liquidity

We might as well look at it from another perspective: What role should Bitcoin play? Is it really meant to be “digital gold”?

First of all, Bitcoin’s underlying attributes determine that it is naturally different from gold. Gold is physically scarce, does not require a network, and does not rely on a system. It is a true doomsday asset. Once a geopolitical crisis occurs, gold can be physically delivered at any time, which is the ultimate safe haven.

Bitcoin is built on electricity, networks, and computing power, and ownership depends on private keys, and transactions depend on network connections.

Secondly, Bitcoin’s market performance is also increasingly like a highly elastic technology asset. When liquidity is loose and risk appetite rises, Bitcoin often leads the rise. However, in the context of rising interest rates and rising risk aversion, it will also be reduced by institutions.

The current market tends to believe that Bitcoin has not truly transformed from a “risk asset” to a “safe-haven asset”. It has both a high-growth and high-volatility adventurous side and a safe-haven side that resists uncertainty. This “risk-safe haven” ambiguity may only be verified by waiting for more cycles and more crises.

Until then, the market still tends to regard Bitcoin as a high-risk, high-return speculative asset, and its performance is linked to technology stocks. Perhaps only when Bitcoin demonstrates a stable value preservation ability similar to gold can this perception be truly reversed.

But Bitcoin will not lose its long-term value. It still has scarcity, global transferability, and the institutional advantages of decentralization. It’s just that in today’s market environment, its positioning is more complex. It is both a pricing anchor, a trading asset, and a speculative tool.

The tone is set: gold is an anti-inflation safe-haven asset, and Bitcoin is a growth asset with stronger return attributes. Gold is suitable for preserving value in times of economic uncertainty, with low volatility (16.00%) and small maximum drawdowns (-18.00%), and is the “ballast stone” of assets. Bitcoin is suitable for allocation when liquidity is abundant and risk appetite rises, with an annualized return of up to 60.60%, but the volatility is also high (72.00%), and the maximum drawdown is -76.00%. This is not an either-or choice, but a combination of asset allocation.

V. KOL Opinion Summary

In this round of macro repricing, gold and Bitcoin are playing different roles. Gold will be more like a “shield” to resist external shocks such as war, inflation, and sovereign risk; while Bitcoin is like a “spear” to seize the value-added opportunities of technological change.

OKX CEO Xu Mingxing @star_okx emphasized that gold is a product of old trust, while Bitcoin is a new credit cornerstone for the future. Choosing gold in 2026 is like betting on a failed system.

Bitget CEO@GracyBitget said that although market fluctuations are inevitable, the long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin have not changed, and she is still optimistic about its future performance.

KOL@KKaWSB cited Polymarket’s forecast data, predicting that Bitcoin will outperform gold and the S&P 500 in 2026, and believes that value realization will come.

KOL@BeiDao_98 provided an interesting technical perspective: Bitcoin’s relative gold RSI fell below 30 again, and historically this signal has indicated that a Bitcoin bull market is coming.

Well-known trader Vida@Vida_BWE cut in from the perspective of short-term capital sentiment, believing that after gold and silver took the lead in soaring, the market is eager to find the next “dollar alternative asset”, so she bought some BTC with a small position, betting on the FOMO sentiment of capital rotation in a few weeks.

KOL@chengzi_95330 put forward a more macro narrative path. He believes that traditional hard assets such as gold and silver should first absorb the credit shock brought about by currency devaluation, and then it will be Bitcoin’s turn to enter the market after they have completed their role. This “traditional first, digital later” path may be the story that the current market is playing out.

VI. Three Suggestions for Retail Investors

Faced with the difference in the gains of Bitcoin and gold and silver, the most common question for ordinary retail investors is: “Which one should I invest in?” There is no standard answer to this question, but we can give 4 practical suggestions:

1. Understand the positioning of each asset and clarify the purpose of allocation. Gold and silver still have strong “hedging” attributes in times of macro uncertainty, and are suitable for defensive allocation; Bitcoin is currently more suitable for adding positions when risk appetite rises and technology growth logic dominates, but be careful not to use gold to gamble on getting rich overnight. Want to resist inflation and hedge risk → buy gold; want long-term high returns → buy Bitcoin (but be prepared to withstand a -70.00% drawdown).

2. Don’t fantasize that Bitcoin will always outperform everything. Bitcoin’s growth comes from technological narratives, capital consensus, and institutional breakthroughs, rather than linear return models. It will not outperform gold, the Nasdaq, or oil every year, but in the long run, its decentralized asset attributes are still valuable. Don’t completely deny it during short-term pullbacks, and don’t blindly All in during surges.

3. Build an asset portfolio and accept the reality that different assets play a role in different cycles. If you have a weak perception of global liquidity and limited risk tolerance, you may wish to use a combination of gold ETF + a small amount of BTC to cope with different macro scenarios; if you have a stronger risk preference, you can also combine ETH, AI tracks, RWA and other emerging assets to build a higher volatility portfolio.

4. Can you still buy gold and silver now? Be cautious about chasing highs and give priority to buying on dips. From a long-term perspective, gold is favored by global central banks, and silver has industrial attributes. These two varieties still have allocation value in turbulent cycles. However, from a short-term perspective, they have risen sharply and are under technical pressure to pull back. The 3.00% single-day plunge in gold on January 29 is an example. If you are a long-term investor, you can consider waiting for the pullback and then slowly buying in, such as gold below $5,000.00 and silver below $100.00, and gradually deploy; if you are a short-term speculator, you need to pay attention to the rhythm and don’t rush in to take the last stick when market sentiment is at its hottest. In contrast, although Bitcoin has performed poorly, if subsequent liquidity expectations improve, it may be a window for low-level deployment. Paying more attention to the rhythm and not chasing the rise and killing the fall is the most core defensive strategy for ordinary people.

Written at the end: Understand the positioning to survive! When gold rises, no one will question the value of Bitcoin; when Bitcoin falls, it does not mean that gold is the only answer. In this era of reshaping value anchors, no asset can meet all needs at once.

In 2024-2025, gold and silver led the way. But extending the time to 12 years, Bitcoin proves with a return of 213 times that it may not be “digital gold”, but it is the greatest asymmetric investment opportunity of this era.

The sharp drop in gold last night may be the end of a short-term adjustment, or it may be the beginning of a larger pullback. But for ordinary traders, what really matters is to understand the role positioning behind different assets and establish their own investment logic to survive in the cycle.

[Biteye]